Modelling our future : population ageing, social security and taxation / edited by Ann Harding, Anil Gupta.

Format:

Book

Conference/Event

Contributor:

Harding, Ann, 1958-

Gupta, Anil, statistician

Alumni and Friends Memorial Book Fund.

Conference Name:

International Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health (2003 : Canberra, A.C.T.)

Series:

International symposia in economic theory and econometrics ; 15.

International symposia in economic theory and econometrics, 1571-0386 ; v. 15

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Policy sciences--Computer simulation--Congresses.

Policy sciences.

Social sciences--Computer simulation--Congresses.

Social sciences.

Social sciences--Forecasting--Congresses.

Population aging--Economic aspects--Congresses.

Population aging.

Forecasting.

Social sciences--Computer simulation.

Policy sciences--Computer simulation.

Genre:

Conference papers and proceedings.

Physical Description:

xxii, 525 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.

Edition:

First edition.

Other Title:

Modeling our future

Place of Publication:

Amsterdam ; Boston : Elsevier, 2007.

Summary:

The issues associated with population ageing are already assuming prominence in most OECD countries. Many governments are extremely concerned about the likely impact of population ageing upon future government outlays and economic growth. In Australia, for example, there have already been two major government reports that have attempted to quantify the likely implications for government spending of population ageing. These reports have concluded that there will either have to be cuts in current government programs, increases in taxes or some combination of these. The ageing population will also require more health human resources (doctors, nurses, pharmacists etc.), in an environment where the existing workforce itself is ageing. Economic growth is forecast to slow significantly in future decades due to population ageing, reducing government's ability to rely on a rapidly growing taxpaying labour force to finance the expected shortfalls.

Against this backdrop, volumes 15 and 16 of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Series provide very timely and relevant research for policy makers and researchers across the world. The modelling approaches and research described in the volumes are at the international leading edge, providing insights into how different countries are facing the challenges associated with population ageing. Many countries have developed microsimulation and other models to help them evaluate the impacts of population ageing and of public policy changes. Volume 15 concentrates upon the impacts of population ageing upon social security and taxation. For example, the chapters examine likely future pension outlays under current and possible alternative schemes; estimate the likely wealth of future retirees; forecast tax revenues out to 2026 and look at the impact of population ageing upon housing prices and tourism.

Contents:

Part I Pension Analysis Using Dynamic Microsimulation

Chapter 2 Can We Afford the Future? An Evaluation of the New Swedish Pension System / Lennart Flood 33

Chapter 3 A Microsimulation Model of Private Sector Pensions in France / Thierry Debrand, Sophie Pennec, Anne-Gisele Privat 55

Chapter 4 Effects of Demographic Developments, Labour Supply and Pension Reforms on the Future Pension Burden in Norway / Dennis Fredriksen, Nils Martin Stolen 81

Chapter 5 Macroeconomic Effects of Proposed Pension Reforms in Norway / Dennis Fredriksen, Kim Massey Heide, Erling Holmoy, Ingeborg Foldoy Solli 107

Chapter 6 Adding Private Pensions to the Canadian DYNACAN Model / Richard J. Morrison 143

Chapter 7 Post-Secondary Education and Training Participation Rates in Australia in the Next 30 Years: A Microsimulation Approach / Sandra Roussel 171

Part II Taxes, Benefits and Labour Supply

Chapter 8 Lifetime Redistribution Through Taxes, Transfers and Non-Cash Benefits / Thomas Pettersson, Tomas Pettersson 205

Chapter 9 Income Distribution and Redistribution in a Medium-Term Perspective in Denmark / Frederik Hansen 233

Chapter 10 Population Ageing and Fiscal Sustainability: Integrating Detailed Labour Supply Models with CGE Models / Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino, Erling Holmoy, Birger Strom, Tom Wennemo 259

Chapter 11 Canadian Retirement Behaviour: A Microeconomic Examination / Greg Maloney, Mashood Mirza, Francois Paris 291

Chapter 12 STINMOD: Use of a Static Microsimulation Model in the Policy Process in Australia / Rachel Lloyd 315

Chapter 13 The Impact of Canadian Population Ageing on Federal Personal Income Tax: Microsimulation Results from 2000 to 2026 / Weng-Fong Lu, Wei Li, Earl Bailey 335

Chapter 14 Basic Income or Vital Minimum? A Note on the Distributive Effects of Possible Reforms of the Spanish Income Tax / Xisco Oliver, Amedeo Spadaro 361

Part III Wealth and Services

Chapter 15 Self Provision in Retirement? Forecasting Future Household Wealth in Australia / Simon Kelly 387

Chapter 16 Household Net Wealth in New Zealand: Implications for Retirement Incomes / Grant M. Scobie, John Gibson 407

Chapter 17 Population Ageing, Housing Demand and House Prices in Australia: A Microsimulation Analysis / Ross S. Guest 435

Chapter 18 Population Ageing and State Concessions Policy / Karen Piper, Don Siemon 459

Chapter 19 Future Service Provision at the Local Level: Demographic Modelling and Forecasting in the City of Bayside / Simon Byth 483

Chapter 20 Characteristics and Travel Patterns of Older Australians: Impact of Population Ageing on Tourism / Afzal Hossain, Geoff Bailey, Milly Lubulwa 501.

Notes:

A selection of papers from a conference entitled: International Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health, held Dec. 2003 in Canberra, Australia.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Alumni and Friends Memorial Book Fund.

ISBN:

9780762313433

0762313439

OCLC:

77708311

Online:

Publisher description