Exploring terrorist targeting preferences / Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Libicki, Martin C.

Contributor:

Chalk, Peter.

Sisson, Melanie.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Terrorism--United States--Prevention.

Terrorism.

United States.

Physical Description:

xxii, 107 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2007.

Summary:

Al Qaeda, the jihadist network personified by Osama bin Laden, uses terror to restore a caliphate free of Western influence. Understanding al Qaeda's strategic logic might suggest what U.S. targets it may seek to strike and why. This book posits four hypotheses to link means and ends. The coercion hypothesis suggests that terrorists are interested in causing pain, notably casualties, to frighten the United States into pursuing favorable policies. The damage hypothesis posits that terrorists want to damage the U.S. economy to weaken its ability to intervene in the Islamic world. The rally hypothesis holds that terrorism in the United States would be carried out to attract potential recruits' and supporters' attention. The franchise Hypothesis argues that today's jihadists pursue their own, often local, agendas with, at most, support and encouragement from al Qaeda itself. The authors conclude that the coercion and damage hypotheses are most consistent with prior attack patterns, expert opinion, and al Qaeda statements. The rally hypothesis appears to have weaker explanatory power. The franchise hypothesis coincides with the majority of post-9/11 attacks, but, unless such franchises are active in the United States, may not indicate what the next attack in the United States might be.

Contents:

Chapter 2 What Drives al Qaeda's Choice of Targets? 5

The al Qaeda Targeting Process: Four Hypotheses 8

The Coercion Hypothesis 9

The Damage Hypothesis 11

The Rally Hypothesis 12

The Franchise Hypothesis 14

Some Observations on Rationality 18

Alternatives to Rational Action 19

Organization 21

Chapter 3 Hypothesis Testing: Quantitative and Qualitative Measures 24

Measuring Intent 24

Quantitative Measures 25

Qualitative Measures 25

Modeling Intent 26

Coercion 26

Damage 29

Rally 30

Franchise 31

Testing Hypotheses Against Past Attacks 32

World Trade Center (WTC), New York, 1993 34

Khobar Towers, Riyadh, 1996 35

East Africa Embassy Bombings, Nairobi and Dar Es Salam, 1998 36

USS Cole, Yemen, 2000 37

WTC, New York, and Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia, 2001 37

Bali, 2002 39

Djerba, 2002 40

MV Limburg, Yemen, 2002 40

Mombasa, 2002 41

Casablanca, 2003 42

Istanbul, 2003 43

Madrid, 2004 43

Riyadh, 2004 44

Hilton Hotel, Taba, Egypt, 2004 45

Chapter 4 Hypothesis Testing: Al Qaeda Statements and Expert Observations 49

Al Qaeda's Reading of History Suggests the Leverage of Terrorism 49

The Coercion Hypothesis 52

The Damage Hypothesis 57

The Rally Hypothesis 61

The Franchise Hypothesis 66

Chapter 5 Ramifications for al Qaeda Attack Planning in the United States 73

Coercion 74

Soft Targets 74

Categorizing Potential Attacks 80

Damage 81

Radiological Releases 82

Biological Attacks on Agriculture 84

Categorizing Potential Attacks 86

Rally 86

Suicide Terrorism 87

Categorizing Potential Attacks 91

Franchise 91

Is the United States Off the Target List for the Time Being? 92.

Notes:

"MG-483."

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

083303913X

9780833039132

OCLC:

67345952