The emergence of numerical weather prediction : Richardson's dream / Peter Lynch.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Lynch, Peter, 1947-

Contributor:

Edward Potts Cheyney Memorial Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Richardson, Lewis F., 1881-1953.

Richardson, Lewis F.

Weather forecasting--History.

Weather forecasting.

History.

Physical Description:

xii, 279 pages : illustrations ; 26 cm

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, UK ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2006.

Summary:

In the early twentieth century, Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that scientific weather prediction would one day become a practical reality. The method of computing changes in the state of the atmosphere, which he mapped out in great detail, is essentially the method used today. Before his ideas could bear fruit, several advances were needed: better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere; stable computational algorithms to integrate the equations of motion; regular observations of the free atmosphere; and powerful automatic computer equipment.

By 1950, advances on all these fronts were sufficient to permit the first computer weather forecast to be made. Over the ensuing 50 years, progress in numerical weather prediction has been dramatic, allowing Richardson's dream to become a reality. Weather prediction and climate modelling have now reached a high level of sophistication.

This book tells the story of Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of practical weather forecasting and climate modelling. It has a complete reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses in detail the causes of the failure of this forecast. It also includes a description of current practice, with particular emphasis on the work of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The book will appeal to researchers in atmospheric science, numerical weather prediciton, climate modelling and computer simulation, and to students in these fields, as well as readers interested in the history of meteorology and of computation.

Contents:

Guiding signs viii

1 Weather Prediction by Numerical Process 1

1.1 The problem 1

1.2 Vilhelm Bjerknes and scientific forecasting 4

1.3 Outline of Richardson's life and work 10

1.4 The origin of Weather Prediction by Numerical Process 14

1.5 Outline of the contents of WPNP 18

1.6 Preview of remaining chapters 25

2 The fundamental equations 29

2.1 Richardson's general circulation model 30

2.2 The basic equations 31

2.3 The vertical velocity equation 39

2.4 Temperature in the stratosphere 42

2.5 Pressure co-ordinates 44

3 The oscillations of the atmosphere 47

3.1 The Laplace tidal equations 48

3.2 Normal modes of the atmosphere 49

3.3 Atmospheric tides 55

3.4 Numerical solution of the Laplace tidal equations 56

4 The barotropic forecast 63

4.1 Richardson's model and data 63

4.2 The finite difference scheme 65

4.3 Richardson's conclusions 68

4.4 The global numerical model 70

4.5 Extending the forecast 72

4.6 Non-divergent and balanced initial conditions 75

4.7 Reflections on the single layer model 77

5 The solution algorithm 79

5.1 The finite difference method 79

5.2 Integration in time 81

5.3 The Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy stability criterion 85

5.4 The Richardson grid 87

5.5 The equations for the strata 89

5.6 The computational algorithm 92

6 Observations and initial fields 97

6.1 Aerological observations 97

6.2 Dines' meteorograph 100

6.3 The Leipzig charts 104

6.4 Preparation of the initial fields 109

7 Richardson's forecast 117

7.1 What Richardson actually predicted: 20 numbers 117

7.2 Scaling the equations of motion 120

7.3 Analysis of the initial tendencies 125

7.4 The causes of the forecast failure 131

7.5 Max Margules and the 'impossibility' of forecasting 133

8 Balance and initialisation 137

8.1 Balance in the atmosphere 137

8.2 The slow manifold 140

8.3 Techniques of initialisation 142

8.4 The swinging spring 146

8.5 Digital filter initialisation 152

9 Smoothing the forecast 159

9.1 Reconstruction of the forecast 159

9.2 Richardson's five smoothing methods 162

9.3 Digital filtering of the initial data 164

9.4 Extension of the forecast 175

10 The ENIAC integrations 181

10.1 The 'Meteorology Project' 182

10.2 The filtered equations 187

10.3 The first computer forecast 190

10.4 The barotropic model 196

10.5 Multi-level models 199

10.6 Primitive equation models 202

10.7 General circulation models and climate modelling 206

11 Numerical weather prediction today 209

11.1 Observational data 209

11.2 Objective analysis 213

11.3 Progress in computing 219

11.4 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 221

11.5 Meso-scale modelling 228

11.6 Chaos, predictability and ensemble forecasting 231

12 Fulfilment of the dream 243

12.1 Richardson's explanation of his glaring error 243

12.2 The 'forecast factory' 246

12.3 Richardson's dream 248

Appendix 1 Table of notation 251

Appendix 2 Milestones in Richardson's life and career 254

Appendix 3 Laplace tidal equations: separation of variables 256

Appendix 4 Richardson's forecast factory: the $64 000 question 259.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 262-273) and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Edward Potts Cheyney Memorial Fund.

ISBN:

0521857295

9780521857291

OCLC:

70399629

Online:

Publisher description