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Information markets : a new way of making decisions / editors, Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock.
- Format:
- Book
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Forecasting--Congresses.
- Forecasting.
- Decision making--Congresses.
- Decision making.
- Economic forecasting--Congresses.
- Economic forecasting.
- Genre:
- Conference papers and proceedings.
- Physical Description:
- xi, 201 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies ; Blue Ridge Summit, PA : Distributed to the trade by National Book Network, [2006]
- Summary:
- Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to Oscar winners. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many scholars believe they have the potential to revolutionize policymaking. At the same time, they present a number of challenges.
- This collection of essays provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the potential impact of information markets on public policy and private decision making. The authors assess what we really know about information markets, examine the potential of information markets to improve policy, lay out a research agenda to help improve our understanding of information markets, and explain how we might systematically improve the design of such markets.
- Contents:
- 1 Introduction to Information Markets / Robert W. Hahn, Paul C. Tetlock 1
- 2 Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets / Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz 13
- A Framework 16
- Attracting Uninformed Traders 19
- Balancing Interest and Contractibility 21
- Managing Manipulation 22
- Ensuring Calibration on Small Probabilities 23
- Separating Correlation and Causation 25
- 3 Designing Information Markets for Policy Analysis / John O. Ledyard 37
- Information Markets for Prediction 37
- Information Markets for Decisions 44
- Knowing What Works 50
- 4 Deliberation and Information Markets / Cass R. Sunstein 67
- Deliberating Groups 69
- Sources of Deliberative Failure 71
- Deliberative Failure 1 Amplification of Cognitive Errors 74
- Deliberative Failure 2 Hidden Profiles and Common Knowledge 75
- Deliberative Failure 3 Cascades 78
- Deliberative Failure 4 Group Polarization 82
- Information Markets 84
- 5 Deliberative Information Markets for Small Groups / Michael Abramowicz 101
- The Benefits of Information Revelation 102
- Small-Group Information Markets 106
- Deliberative Information Markets 112
- 6 Foul Paly in Information Markets / Robin Hanson 126
- Evaluation Standards 127
- Limiting Participation 128
- Lying 128
- Manipulation 129
- Sabotage 132
- Embezzlement 134
- Retribution 136
- 7 The Iowa Electronic Markets: Stylized Facts and Open Issues / Joyce E. Berg, Thomas A. Rietz 142
- IEM Overview 143
- Stylized Facts from IEM Markets 145
- Open Issues 155
- 8 A New Tool for Promoting Economic Development / Robert W. Hahn, Paul C. Tetlock 170
- A New Development Model 172
- Setting Development Priorities: The Copenhagen Consensus 177
- Rethinking Existing Development Efforts 184
- The Transition to a Performance-Based Development Paradigm 188.
- Notes:
- "This collection of essays ... is the result of an AEI-Brookings Joint Center conference held on December 10, 2004"--Pref.
- Includes bibliographical references and index.
- ISBN:
- 0844742287
- OCLC:
- 64336003
- Publisher Number:
- 9780844742281
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