The secrets of economic indicators : hidden clues to future economic trends and investments opportunities / Bernard Baumohl.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Baumohl, Bernard.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic indicators.

Economic forecasting.

Business forecasting.

Physical Description:

366 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

Upper Saddle River, NJ. : Wharton School Pub., 2005.

Summary:

Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets. Now you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do. You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book. Former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators fascinating. Using real-world examples and stories, Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters. Where to find them. What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And exactly how to interpret them. Whether you're an investor, broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist, or student, you'll find this book indispensable. Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But The Secrets of Economic Indicators will get you as close as humanly possible.

Contents:

Chapter 1 The Lock-Up 1

U.S. Economic Indicators 6

International Economic Indicators 13

Chapter 2 A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17

Annual Rates 17

Business Cycle 18

Consensus Surveys 19

Moving Average 20

Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current Dollars Versus Constant Dollars) 20

Revisions and Benchmarks 21

Seasonal Adjustments 22

Chapter 3 The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25

Employment

Employment Situation 25

Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance 38

Help-Wanted Advertising Index 42

Corporate Layoff Announcements 45

Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) 48

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Personal Income and Spending 52

Retail Sales 62

E-Commerce Retail Sales 67

Weekly Chain Store Sales 70

Consumer Credit Outstanding 75

Cambridge Consumer Credit Index 80

Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 86

Survey of Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) 91

ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index 94

UBS Index of Investor Optimism 97

National Output and Inventories

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 100

Durable Goods Orders 116

Factory Orders 123

Business Inventories 130

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 137

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey 147

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey 154

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Business Barometer) 157

Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 161

Housing and Construction

Housing Starts and Building Permits 169

Existing Home Sales 175

New Home Sales 181

Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 187

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the National Delinquency Survey 191

Construction Spending 195

Regional Federal Reserve Bank Surveys

Regional Federal Reserve Bank Reports 198

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Survey 199

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Business Outlook Survey 205

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Manufacturing Survey of the 10th District 209

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: Manufacturing Activity for the Fifth District 213

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI) 216

The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book 219

Foreign Trade

International Trade in Goods and Services 223

Current Account Balance (Summary of International Transactions) 237

Prices, Productivity, and Wages

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 245

Producer Price Index (PPI) 255

Employment Cost Index 262

Import and Export Prices 268

Productivity and Costs 275

Employer Costs for Employee Compensation 282

Real Earnings 286

Yield Curve 289

Chapter 4 International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 295

German Industrial Production 298

German IFO Business Survey 300

German Consumer Price Index (CPI) 302

Japan's Tankan Survey 306

Japan Industrial Production 312

France Monthly Business Survey (INSEE) 317

Eurozone-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 320

Global-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 320

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) 326

China Industrial Production 329

Brazil Industrial Production 334

Chapter 5 Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 339

Schedule of Releases 339

Economic News 339

The U.S. Economy 339

Consumer Behavior 340

Employment Conditions 341

Home Sales and Construction Activity 342

International Trade 342

Inflation Pressures 343

Federal Reserve Surveys 343

The Federal Budget 344

Interest Rates 344

Money and Credit 344

U.S. Dollar 344

One-Stop Shopping for Economic Statistics 345

Other Useful Sources on the Web 345

Chapter 6 Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 347

Calendar of Releases for Foreign Economic Data 347

Sources of Global Economic News 347

Economic Statistics from Other Countries 347

Best Megasites for International Economic Statistics 353.

Notes:

Includes index.

ISBN:

013145501X

OCLC:

57349211