Toward a containment strategy for smallpox bioterror : an individual-based computational approach / Joshua M. Epstein ... [and others].

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Epstein, Joshua M., 1951-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Smallpox--Epidemiology--Computer simulation.

Smallpox.

Bioterrorism--Computer simulation.

Bioterrorism.

Epidemics--Prevention--Computer simulation.

Epidemics.

Epidemics--Prevention.

Computer simulation.

Smallpox--Epidemiology.

Physical Description:

v, 55 pages : illustrations ; 26 cm

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, [2004]

Summary:

The level of immunity remaining in the U.S. population is uncertain, but is generally assumed to be quite low. Smallpox is a deadly and infectious pathogen with a fatality rate of 30 percent. If smallpox were successfully deployed as an agent of bioterrorism today, the public health and economic consequences could be devastating. sToward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror describes the scientific results and policy implications of a simulation of a smallpox epidemic in a two-town county. The model was developed by an interdisciplinary team from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Brookings Institution Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, employing agent-based and other advanced computational techniques. Such models are playing a critical role in the crafting of a national strategy for the containment of smallpox by providing public health policymakers with a variety of novel and feasible approaches to vaccination and isolation under different circumstances. The extension of these techniques to the containment of emerging pathogens, such as SARS, is discussed.

Contents:

The county-level model

Simulated epidemics

Vaccination strategies

Bifurcation and epidemic quenching

A balanced policy

Research conducted under the auspices of the smallpox modeling working group

Further research.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0815724551

OCLC:

54501941