The end of world population growth in the 21st century : new challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development / edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Lutz, Wolfgang.

Sanderson, Warren C.

Scherbov, Sergei.

Series:

Population and sustainable development series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Population forecasting.

Twenty-first century--Forecasts.

Twenty-first century.

Demographic transition.

Physical Description:

x, 341 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.

Place of Publication:

London ; Sterling, VA : Earthscan, 2004.

Summary:

The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

Contents:

1.1 Contrasting Perceptions of the Demographic Future: From "Population Explosion" to "Gray Dawn" 3

1.2 The Continuing Demographic Transition 6

1.3 Antecedents 9

1.4 Structure of the Volume 12

2 The End of World Population Growth / Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov 17

2.1 Why Do We Need New Forecasts? 18

2.2 Our Approach to Population Forecasting 20

2.3 Summary of Arguments and Specific Assumptions 24

2.4 The Future Population of the World and Its Uncertainty 38

2.5 The Population of World Regions and Their Uncertainties 41

2.6 Regional Population Shares 49

2.7 Comparison with Other World Population Forecasts 52

Postscript: The Latest UN Long-Range Projections 58

Appendix 2.1 Definition of World Regions 63

Appendix 2.2 Assumed Matrix of Inter-regional Migration Flows 67

Appendix 2.3 Methods 68

3 Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecasting / Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Wolfgang Lutz, Brian C. O'Neill 85

3.1 Massive Population Aging 86

3.2 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasting 105

3.3 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasts with Future Jump-Off Dates 109

4 Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education / Anne Goujon, Wolfgang Lutz 121

4.1 The Multistate Approach 122

4.2 Data on Education 126

4.3 Regional Education Levels in 2000 126

4.4 Scenarios 130

Appendix 4.1 Sources of Data and Methods of Estimation 142

Appendix 4.2 Results of the Projections 145

5 Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human Development / Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon 159

5.1 A Clear and Meaningful Indicator of Social Development 160

5.2 What Does Literate Life Expectancy Represent? 162

5.3 Calculations with Empirical Data 164

5.4 Trends in Literate Life Expectancy since 1970 165

5.5 Projections of Literate Life Expectancy to 2030 175

Appendix 5.1 Data Sources, Differences in Country Rankings, and Comparison of "No Education" and "Illiterate" Categories 181

6 Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture Interactions in Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopia / Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, Paulina K. Makinwa-Adebusoye, Georges Reniers 187

6.2 The Structure of the PEDA Model 191

6.3 PEDA Projections for Ethiopia 200

Appendix 6.1 Model and Parameter Specifications 214

7 Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic Examples from Botswana / Warren C. Sanderson 227

7.2 Some Tidbits of Evidence 231

7.3 Overview of the Methodology 234

7.4 Examples from Botswana 238

7.5 Previous Findings 247

Appendix 7.1 Transition Rates between States 254

Appendix 7.2 The Prevalence Rate Data and Their Correction 260

8 China's Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Education / Gui-Ying Cao, Wolfgang Lutz 265

8.2 Salient Demographic Features in Contemporary China 266

8.3 Alternative Scenarios for China's Future 275

9 Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Change / Brian C. O'Neill, F. Landis MacKellar, Wolfgang Lutz 283

9.2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 284

9.3 Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 290

9.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications 309

10 Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development: From "Population Stabilization" to "Population Balance" / Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, Brian C. O'Neill 315

10.1 Changing Population Policy Rationales 316

10.2 Population Balance 323

10.3 A Highly Simplified, Quantitative Population Balance Model 325.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

1844070891

1844070999

OCLC:

53485199