Into the EU : policy frameworks in Central Europe / a staff team led by Robert A. Feldman and C. Maxwell Watson ; with Peter Doyle ... [and others].

Format:

Book

Government document

Contributor:

Feldman, Robert A., 1949-

Watson, Maxwell.

Doyle, Peter, 1961-

International Monetary Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Finance--Europe, Central.

Finance.

Banks and banking--Europe, Central.

Banks and banking.

Privatization--Europe, Central.

Privatization.

Economic conditions.

Central Europe.

Europe, Central--Economic conditions--1991-.

Europe, Central.

European Union--Europe, Central.

European Union.

Europe--Economic integration.

Europe.

Physical Description:

xii, 236 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Other Title:

Into the European Union

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002.

Contents:

1 The Road to EU Accession 1

Change in the Economy 1

The Financial Sector 3

Macroeconomic Policies 4

2 Enlarging the EU: Accession Requirements and the Central European Candidates 7

3 Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe from 1990 to the Long Term 13

Sources of Growth During Transition 14

Structural Policies and Growth During Transition 23

International Evidence on the Determinants of Long-Run Growth 25

Growth Scenarios in the Long Run 28

4 Financial Sector Evolution: Challenges in Supporting Macroeconomic Stability and Sustainable Growth 34

Financial Sector Development and Growth 35

Interlinkages to Macroeconomic Policy 53

5 A Framework for Financial Stability 76

The Legal, Institutional, and Supervisory Framework 76

Intermediating Capital Flows 84

Risk Management 88

Financial Safety Nets 90

International Standards and IMF Surveillance 91

6 Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes 98

Disinflation: Initial Success and Current Tensions 101

The Run-Up to Accession: Regime Requirements and Goals in Context 112

Considerations in Managing Flexible Regimes 122

Back to the Future: Wide Bands and the Return to Fixity 131

Capital Controls and Policy Safeguards 135

7 Balancing Fiscal Priorities 141

Facing the Challenges 145

Medium-Term Fiscal Positions: Choosing an Appropriate Target 150

Revenue Reforms on the Way to EU Accession 158

Need and Scope for Expenditure Reforms 162

Reconciling Fiscal Objectives 174

Medium-Term Fiscal Management in Practice 175

Additional Risk Factors: Privatization Receipts and Fiscal Decentralization 185

8 The Challenges Ahead 188

2.1 The Acquis Communautaire 8

3.1 Estimating the Capital Stock in the CEC5 19

3.2 Total Factor Productivity Sensitivity Analysis 22

3.3 Investment Ratios and Capital Intensity: Italy 1960s; Spain 1970s 31

4.1 Troubles with IPB 46

4.2 The Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Sector Stability 54

4.3 Privatization Methods and Fiscal Costs of Bank Restructuring 58

5.1 EU Legislation Governing the Banking Sector 78

5.2 European Commission's Assessment of Progress Toward Accession in the Area of Financial Services 80

5.3 Impact of the Russian Crisis 86

5.4 Capital Inflows into Hungary in Early 2000 87

5.5 The Financial Sector Assessment Program 92

5.6 Stress-Testing of the Hungarian Banking System 94

6.1 Policies for Disinflation 108

6.2 The Maastricht Inflation Constraint and Szapary's Boxer 118

6.3 Currency Boards 120

6.4 The Many Possible Worlds of ERM2 136

7.1 Pre-Accession Economic Programs (PEPs) in Future Perspective 146

7.2 Medium-Term Fiscal Plans of the Accession Countries 152

7.3 Fiscal Adjustment and Growth 155

7.4 EU Pre-Accession Assistance 167

7.5 Planning Spending Restraint

An Illustration for Poland 172

7.6 Reconciling Medium-Term Fiscal Tensions: Two Cases From Recent History 176

7.7 Defining Elements of Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks 180

3.1 CEC5: Sources of Growth, 1989-99 16

3.2 CEC5: Investment to GDP Ratios, 1985-1999 18

4.1 Broad Money (M2) 41

4.2 Real Growth of Private Credit, 1996-2000 42

4.3 Interest Rate Differential, 1995-2001 44

4.4 Real Deposit and Lending Rates, 1998-2001 48

4.5 External Liquidity Position: Selected Countries, 1999 68

4.6 Deposit, Lending and Key-Policy Rates, 1998-2001 72

4.7 Credit to Private Sector, 1995-2000 73

5.1 Comparisons of Financial and Balance of Payments Vulnerability Indicators, 1998-2000 96

6.1 Monthly Headline Inflation in the CEC5: 1991-2001 102

6.2 Monthly Core Inflation in CEC5: 1993-2001 103

7.1 Government Balances in the CEC5 and the European Union, 1993-99 149

7.2 Revenue and Expenditure Trends in the CEC5 and the European Union, 1993-99 151

7.3 Old-Age Dependency Ratio in the CEC5 and Europe, 1990-2030 164

7.4 Indicators of Public Spending in the CEC5 and the European Union, 1998 169

7.5 Per Capita Income and Primary Current Spending in Selected Countries, 1998 170

3.1 Cumulative Output Growth and Its Sources 20

3.2 Sources of Growth in Golden Age Europe and Japan, and Recent East Asia 26

3.3 Projected TFP Growth for the CEC5 29

3.4 Panel Regression Results from a Sample of Six Transition Economies, 1992-99 32

4.1 Banking Sector Statistics 38

4.2 Equity Market Indicators 39

4.3 Profitability and Efficiency Measures, 1995-2000 45

4.4 Classified Loans/Assets as Share of Total Loans/Claims 49

4.5 Cost of Bank Restructuring for the Government and Central Bank, 1991-98 51

5.1 Extensiveness and Effectiveness of Financial System Regulations 77

5.2 Effectiveness of Shareholder Protection 85

5.3 Deposit Insurance Coverage 91

6.1 Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy Regimes in the CEC5 104

6.2 Exchange Rate Regimes and Basic Economic Characteristics of the CEC5 106

7.1 Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks in Finland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom 182

I. Setting Medium-Term Fiscal Targets: The Role of Public and External Debt and Current Account Considerations 191

II. Revenue Trends and Tax Structures 208

A1 The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Private Saving and Investment 204

A1 External Debt-to-GDP Ratios in Selected Middle-Income Countries, 1999 200

A2 Saving-Investment Balances in the CEC5, 1993-99 206

A3 Tax Ratios in the CEC5 and the European Union, 1994 and 1998 212

A4 Structure of Tax Revenue in the CEC5 and the European Union, 1998 215

A1 Fiscal Balances and Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios 194

A2 Sovereign Ratings of Middle-Income Countries' Long-Term Foreign Currency Debt 198

A3 External Current Account Balances and Foreign Indebtedness Under Alternative Scenarios 202

A4 Medium-Term Fiscal Targets Anchored on External Debt and Current Account Constraints 207

A5 General Government Revenue in the CEC5, 1994-98 209

A6 Social Contribution Rates in the CEC5, Europe, and the OECD 216

A7 Main Elements of the Personal Income Tax System in the CEC5 and the European Union 218

A8 Corporate and Value-Added Tax Rates in the CEC5 and the European Union 220.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 221-233).

ISBN:

1589060849

OCLC:

49969075