Scaling in integrated assessment / editors, Jan Rotmans & Dale S. Rothman.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Rotmans, Jan, 1961-

Rothman, Dale S.

Series:

Integrated assessment studies

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Ecological assessment (Biology).

Environmental health.

Environmental monitoring--Methodology.

Environmental monitoring.

Environmental monitoring--Evaluation.

Environmental impact analysis.

Scaling (Social sciences).

Genre:

Conference papers and proceedings.

Physical Description:

xvi, 354 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.

Place of Publication:

Lisse ; Exton, Pa. : Swets & Zeitlinger, [2003]

Contents:

2 Geographic Scaling Issues in Integrated Assessments of Climate Change 5

How Scale Matters 5

Findings to Date 8

Elements of a Coherent Story Line About How Scale Matters 13

Operational Issues 18

The Principal Alternatives 18

The Principal Challenges 21

Directions for Improving our Capabilities 27

3 Micro/Macro and Soft/Hard: Diverging and Converging Issues in the Physical and Social Sciences 35

Scales in the Social Sciences: Mixing Levels or What is the Difference? 37

Scales in the Physical Sciences: the Climate System 40

There is Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory 43

The Differences that Make a Difference: Scales in Climate Change and Climate Impact Research 45

4 Scale and Scope in Integrated Assessment: Lessons from Ten Years with ICAM 51

Lessons from Developing ICAM 54

Questions, Scope and Scale 56

Perceptions, Impacts and Adaptation 62

Sea Level Rise Revisited 65

Energy Markets and Technological Progress 67

Scale, the Study of Climate Policy and its Evolution 69

Conclusions on Scope and Scale 71

5 Scaling Issues in the Social Sciences 75

Scaling Terminology 77

Context of Scale Issues in Social Research 79

Scale Issues in Social Science Disciplines 82

Scale Issues in Geography 83

Scale Issues in Economics 85

Scale Issues in Ecological Economics 86

Scale Issues in Urban Studies 87

Scale Issues in Sociology 87

Scale Issues in Political Science and Political Economy 89

Scale, Social Science Data Collection, Representation and Analysis 93

Social Sciences Methods Addressing Scale 96

Contextual Analysis 96

Multi-Level Modeling 97

Hierarchy Theory 97

Modifiable Areal Unit Problem 97

Scale, Social Science and Integrated Assessment Modeling 98

6 Sustainability and Economics: A Matter of Scale? 107

Returns to Scale 111

Industrial Districts in the World Economy 114

Back to the Future 116

7 Scales in Economic Theory 125

Scales and Aggregation 126

Space and Aggregation in Ecology 128

Space and Aggregation in Economics 129

Spatial Resolution and Emerging Patterns of Location Behaviour 131

Does Spatial Resolution Matter in Scientific Disciplines that Deal with Space? 131

Geography 132

Regional Economics 133

8 Scaling Methods in Regional Integrated Assessments: from Points Upward and from Global Models Downwards 139

Scaling Up Impacts 141

Site-Driven Approaches 141

Uniform Grid Approach 145

Spatially Combined: Uniform Grids with Relational Soils 148

Spatial Interpolation Approach 154

Stochastic Space Approach 158

Downscaling 162

Overview of Methods 162

Issues in Scaling Methods 167

Input Data 167

Technical Expertise 167

Validation 168

Uncertainty and Risk 168

Stakeholder Participation 169

Scaling Agents 169

9 Strategic Cyclical Scaling: Bridging Five Orders of Magnitude Scale Gaps in Climatic and Ecological Studies 179

Scaling Paradigms in Modeling Coupled Systems 179

Ecological Responses to Climate Changes as Scaling Examples 183

Scaling Analysis of Ecological Responses 187

Integrated Assessment via Coupled Socio-Natural Systems Models 193

10 The Syndromes Approach to Scaling 205

Dealing with Global Change

The Scaling Problem as One Crucial Aspect of Complexity and Uncertainty 205

Idealistic Deduction Versus Realistic Induction 207

Syndromes II: Modelling, Spatial and Functional Scale of Validity 216

Qualitative Differential Equations

Formalizing Coarse Functional Scales 216

General Hazardous Functional Patterns and Detailed Local Case Studies 221

The Extended Sahel HFP and Spatial Distribution of Time Behaviours 227

Appendix A Important Terms of the Syndrome Concept 232

Appendix B Symbols Used for the Graphical Representation of Qualitative Models 232

11 Polycentric Integrated Assessment 237

The Decision Perspective 238

Novel Approaches to Decision Making 240

The Importance of Scales 243

Environment Human Interactions Across Scales 243

Climate Change and Water Resource Management from a Scaling Perspective in Time and Space 245

Climate Change and Beyond 248

Sustainable Management of Water Resources 252

Societal Transitions and Lock-in Effects 253

Market Based Institutions from Local to Global Scales 255

Summary and Challenges for Integrated Assessment 257

12 Emergent Properties of Scale in Global Environmental Modeling

are There Any? 263

Scales in Climate Change Impact Assessment 264

Human-Environment Systems as Complex and Hierarchical 267

Emergence: Real or Imagined? 269

Hierarchical Emergence 271

Self-Organization as a Dynamical Theoretical Basis for Scale-Related Emergence 275

An Application to the Problem of the Vulnerability of the USA Agricultural Production System to Climate Change 278

Emergent Properties, Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Use Systems with Environmental Forcing: the Case of Hurricane Mitch and Honduran Agriculture 282

Are Issues of Scale and Surprise Connected? 285

13 Complexity and Scales: the Challenge for Integrated Assessment 293

Introduction

The Epistemological Dimension of Complexity 293

Part 1 Holarchies, Non-Equivalent Descriptive Domains, and Non-Reducible Assessments 296

Self-Organizing Systems are made of Nested Hierarchies and Therefore Entail Non-Equivalent Descriptive Domains 296

Holons, Holarchies and Near-Decomposability of Hierarchical Systems 300

The Epistemological Predicaments Implied by the Ambiguous Identity of Holarchies 304

Bifurcation, Emergence and Scientific Ignorance 307

Non-Reducibility (Multiple Causality) and Incommensurability 312

Part 2 Implications of Complexity and Scales on Integrated Assessment 319

The Epistemological Predicament of Sustainability Analysis 319

A New Conceptualization of "Sustainable Development": Moving from "Substantial" to "Procedural" Rationality 321

14 Scaling in Integrated Assessment: Problem or Challenge? 329

What is the Problem? 330

Scaling in IA-Models 331

Grid-Cell Based Modelling 332

Cellular Automata Modelling 333

Multiple-Scale Regression Modelling 333

Scaling in IA-Scenarios 334

Agents and Scale 339

Uncertainty and Scale 343

Is There a Solution? 346.

Notes:

Containing a collection of papers prepared for or inspired by the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment's (EFIFEA) Policy Workshop on Scaling Issues in Integrated Assessment, held from 12 - 19 July 2000, this volume presents the broad range of scaling issues relevant in Integrated Environmental Assessment. As such, it lays the foundation of further work in this important area of Integrated Assessment.

State of the art report.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9026519478

OCLC:

52217110