Integrated assessment of sustainable energy systems in China : the China Energy Technology Program : a framework for decision support in the electric sector of Shandong Province / edited by Baldur Eliasson and Yam Y. Lee.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Eliasson, Baldur.

Lee, Yam Yee.

China Energy Technology Program.

Series:

Alliance for global sustainability bookseries ; 4.

Alliance for global sustainability ; v. 4

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Electric power production--Environmental aspects--China--Shandong Sheng.

Electric power production.

Electric power production--Economic aspects--China--Shandong Sheng.

Sustainable development--China.

Sustainable development.

Electric power production--Economic aspects.

Electric power production--Environmental aspects.

China.

China Energy Technology Program.

China--Shandong Sheng.

Genre:

Video recordings.

Physical Description:

xxvi, 819 pages : illustrations (some color), color maps ; 25 cm + 1 DVD (14 min. ; 4 3/4 in.)

Other Title:

China Energy Technology Program : a framework for decision support in the electric sector of Shandong Province

Place of Publication:

Dordrecht ; Boston : Kluwer Academic Publishers, [2003]

System Details:

digital

optical

video file

DVD video

Contents:

The AGS/ABB Collaboration 3

The CETP Story 4

The CETP Idea 6

A Living Program 7

The Structure of the Program 7

An Idea for the Future 8

Chapter 2 General Description/Approach and Methodology 11

1. General Description 11

2. Shandong Province 13

3. Operation of CETP 16

4. Components of the Program 19

4.1 Data Collection and Database Development 20

4.2 Demand Forecasting 21

4.3 Energy and Electricity Modeling Tasks 21

4.4 Environmental, Health, and Safety-related Tasks 23

4.5 Integration and Decision Support 25

4.6 Outreach and Technical Exchange 26

Chapter 3 Data Collection and Database Development 29

1. The Data Collection Task 29

1.1 Work Plan and Guidelines 30

1.2 Data Management Strategies 30

1.3 Practical Experience 33

1.4 The ABB-China Library 34

1.5 Other Sources of Information 35

1.6 Participation of SEPRI 35

1.7 Different Stages of the Task 36

2. Database Development 37

2.1 Lotus Notes Database 37

2.2 CETP Website 39

Chapter 4 Demand Forecasting 43

1. Geographic, Social, and Economic Characteristics 43

2. Shandong's Energy Profile 44

2.1 Energy and electricity balance 44

2.2 Energy Consumption in China 44

3. Goals and Methodology 48

3.3 Introduction to the Models 49

3.4 Scope of Demand Forecasting 51

3.5 Interaction with Other Partners and Stakeholders 53

4. Scenario Construction 54

4.1 Low GDP Growth Rate Scenario (Lowgdp) 54

4.2 Economic Structure Change scenario (Structure) 55

4.3 Low Energy Efficiency Scenario (Inefficient) 56

4.4 Additional Scenarios 56

5. Important Assumptions in Energy Demand Forecasting 56

5.1 Macroeconomic Factors 56

5.2 The Outlook for Social and Economic Development 59

6. The Primary Sector 61

7. The Industrial Sector 62

7.1 Nonferrous Metals 63

7.2 Textiles 64

7.3 Chemicals 65

7.4 Energy 67

7.5 Energy-intensive Products in the Industrial Sector 71

8. Construction 76

9. Transportation 77

10. Services 78

11. Households 79

12. Evolution of Electricity Consumption 81

13. Assumptions Included in Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Additional Scenarios 83

14. Forecasting Results and Analysis 83

14.1 Final Energy Demand 83

14.2 Forecasting Electric Loads 89

15.1 Optimization of Demand 94

15.2 Improving Energy Efficiency 95

15.3 Importing High Quality Energy 96

15.4 Enhancing the Energy Infrastructure 97

Chapter 5 Energy Economy Modeling Scenarios for China and Shandong 99

2. General Background About China and Shandong Province 102

2.1 Socio-economic Structure 103

2.3 Structural Changes 104

2.4 Energy Intensity 105

2.5 Energy Resources 105

2.6 Energy Use 107

2.7 Gaseous Emissions 108

3. Energy and Economy Modeling (EEM) Approach 109

3.2 MARKAL-Shandong; Model Description 112

3.3 The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) 120

4. Model Results: MARKAL 127

4.1 Sulfur Taxes and Caps at Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices (SSLC) 131

4.2 Carbon Tax and Caps at Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices (SCLC) 133

4.3 Low Demand and High (Increasing) Fossil-Fuel Prices (SBLH) 133

4.4 High Demand and Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices 134

4.5 MARKAL-Specific Interim Technology Assessment 137

5. Cretm for both China and Shandong Province 139

5.1 Scenario Results 139

5.2 Parametric Sensitivity Studies 151

5.3 Base Case with Optional Endogenous Modeling 160

5.2 Main Results from CRETM 163

6. Integration of Results 169

6.1 Syntheses 170

6.2 MARKAL Results for Shandong 183

6.3 Comparison with Previous Studies 187

6.4 Comparison with Results from within EEM Task (MARKAL and CRETM) 187

7. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations 189

7.1 Findings for Technologies and Emissions 191

7.3 Recommendations 194

Chapter 6 Electric Sector Simulation: A Tradeoff Analysis of Shandong Province's Electric Service Options 201

2. Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis 202

2.1 Policy Relevant Research

Stakeholders and Scenarios 202

2.2 Tradeoff Analysis 204

2.3 Shandong Building Blocks 208

3. Electric Sector Simulation 210

3.1 Simulating Growth in the Electric Sector 212

3.2 Simulating Power System Operation 213

4. Overview of the ESS Scenarios 214

4.1 Attributes 215

5. Shandong Uncertainties and Futures 218

5.1 Demand for Electrical Energy 219

5.2 Steam Coal Cost Uncertainties 224

5.3 Natural Gas Cost Uncertainty 226

6. Shandong Options and Strategies 227

6.2 New Generation Options 230

6.3 Existing Generation Options 234

6.4 Demand-Side Management Options 236

7. The Reference Strategy and the Impact of Growth and Fuel Cost Uncertainties 241

8. Performance of ESS Scenarios 245

8.1 New Generation Options 246

8.2 Existing Generation Options 250

8.3 Demand-Side Options 253

8.4 Integrated Supply and Demand-Side Strategies 256

8.5 Selection of Strategies for Further Analysis 259

9. Extending the Range of Options 270

10. Encompassing Greater Uncertainties 271

Chapter 7 Energy Transportation Modeling 275

2. Model Description 276

2.2 Formulation 277

2.3 Input data and assumptions 279

3. Scenario Analysis with ETM 289

3.1 Scenario Settings 289

Chapter 8 Life Cycle Assessment 319

1.1 Full energy chain analysis 319

1.2 Methodology and main assumptions 320

1.3 Integration of LCA with other CETP Tasks 325

2. The Coal Chain 326

2.2 Status of the coal chain associated with Shandong power plants 327

2.3 Modeling the coal chain for current and future supply to the Shandong grid 344

3. The Natural Gas Chain 365

3.2 Status and possible expansion of the natural gas chain in China 366

3.3 Modeling the natural gas chain for future electricity supply to Shandong 368

4. The Nuclear Chain 381

4.2 Status of the nuclear chain in China 381

4.3 Modeling the nuclear chain for Shandong electricity supply scenarios 384

5. Wind Power 395

5.1 Potential in Shandong 395

5.2 Modeling a wind turbine for future electric supply to Shandong 396

6. Comparison of Current and Future Energy Chains 396

7. Sensitivity Analysis for the Energy Chains 402

7.1 Coal chain sensitivities 403

7.2 Natural gas chain sensitivity 406

7.3 Nuclear chain sensitivities 407

8. Analysis of Scenarios Selected for the Mcda Task 410

8.1 Description of scenarios and assumptions 410

8.3 Health impacts calculated with LCA airborne emissions 425

10. Outlook 433

Chapter 9 Environmental Impact and External Cost Assessment 445

2. Objectives, Scope and Sub-Tasks 446

3. External Cost Assessment 450

3.1 Concept and basic approaches to estimation 450

3.2 Impact pathway approach and the EcoSense model 452

3.3 Technical details of EcoSense China/Asia implementation 464

3.4 Estimates of external costs for China and Shandong 474

4. Acidification in China and Shandong 535

4.1 The RAINS 7.52 Model of Air Pollution 535

4.2 Energy demand and supply 536

4.3 Analysis of Emission Control Scenarios 543

4.4 Simulation of acid deposition in China 556

4.5 Environmental impact assessment of control scenarios 561

4.6 Optimization of Current Policy Scenario 564

5.1 Monetized impacts 572

5.2 Acidification 576

5.3 Recommendations on future work 578

Chapter 10 Assessment of Severe Accident Risks 587

4. Evaluations for Specific Energy Chains 592

4.1 Coal chain 592

4.2 Oil chain 605

4.3 Natural gas chain 609

4.4 Liquefied Petroleum Gas chain 612

4.5 Hydro power 614

4.6 Nuclear chain 620

5. Energy Chain Comparisons 644

5.1 Aggregated indicators and frequency consequence curves 645

5.2 Indicators for the future 651

6.1 Specific chains 654

6.2 Comparative aspects 656

Chapter 11 Multicriteria Output Integration Analysis 661

1. The Contexts of the Multicriteria Decision Aiding Approach in the Cetp Project 661

1.1 The Sustainability Context 661

1.2 The Decision-Making Context in China 664

2. The Stakeholders Advisory Group (SAG) 666

3. The "Potential Actions" or "Decision Scenarios" 668

4. The Criteria 670

5. The Aggregation Method 673

5.1 The ELECTRE Family 673

5.2 Forms of the results ("Problematics") 673

5.4 Types of criteria 675

5.5 ELECTRE III 677

6. The Weighting Process 679

7. The Performance Matrix 681

8. Analysis of the MCDA Results 682

Chapter 12 Comparison and Integration of Cetp Tasks 703

2. Comparison of Electric Sector Methodologies 704

2.1 Relevant Factors in Methodological Comparison 704

2.2 Discussion of Electric Sector Methodologies 707

2.3 Comparison of Methodologies and Results 709

2.4 Comparison of Task Conclusions 714

3. DVD Tool for Documentation, Exploration and Decision Support 717

3.2 Objectives and Targeted Users 718

3.4 Structure and Content 718

4. Program Management for Integration 726

4.1 Program Communications 726

4.2 Stakeholder Interaction 727

4.3 Technical Exchange and Outreach 727

2. The Analytic Framework 729

3. Energy and Electricity Demand Forecasting 730

4. Environmental Damage, Health and Accident Risk 731

5. Energy Supply and Use 736

6. Sustainability and Stakeholder Perspectives 743

7. Recommendations 745

8. Overall Remarks and Future Outlook 747.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

1402011997

1402011989

OCLC:

51764244