New challenges, new tools for defense decisionmaking / [edited by] Stuart E. Johnson ... [and others].

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Johnson, Stuart E., 1944-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Military policy.

Decision making.

United States--Military policy--Decision making.

United States.

National security--United States.

National security.

United States--Defenses.

Defenses.

World politics--21st century.

World politics.

Physical Description:

xxiv, 390 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : Rand, 2003.

Summary:

Though commonplace to say, it is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War transformed the task of American foreign and defense policy. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have opened a new era whose shape and dimensions are yet to be understood. This volume addresses the challenges of this changed world, the difficulties for defense planning that those challenges engender, and new analytic techniques that have been developed at RAND and elsewhere for framing these complex problems. Meeting complex challenges such as counter-terrorism, countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, peace enforcement and crisis response, enforcing economic and military sanctions, and combating narcotics trafficking is critical to maintaining the economic prosperity and security of the United States and its allies. During the last decade, Rand has worked to adapt traditional defense analysis techniques to today's security environment and develop new techniques where necessary. The chapters in this volume provide a new portfolio of tools to frame decisions, to solve problems, and to analyze alternatives.

Contents:

From Old Challenges to New 2

Part I. New Challenges for Defense

Chapter 1 Decisionmaking for Defense / David S.C. Chu, Nurith Berstein 13

Deciding What Decisions Must Be Made 14

Deciding Who Makes the Decisions 15

Deciding How to Allocate Resources 19

Deciding What Investments to Make 22

Alternative Approaches to Decisionmaking 27

Alternative Decisionmaking Styles 29

Looking to the Future 31

Chapter 2 Responding to Asymmetric Threats / Bruce W. Bennett 33

From the Cold War to the Present 34

Examples of Asymmetric Threats 39

How Would Adversaries Shape Asymmetric Threats? 40

The Importance of Surprise and Anonymity 43

Challenge and Response Cycles 45

The Challenge of Weapons of Mass Destruction 47

A Framework for Responding to Asymmetric Threats 49

Institutionalization Through Protection 50

Institutionalization Through Threat Management 56

Internationalization 63

Chapter 3 What Information Architecture for Defense? / Martin C. Libicki 67

The Global Information Grid 70

Need There Be Architecture? 72

Architecture Follows Culture? 73

DoD as an Institution in Its Own League 74

Elements of Architecture 78

Collection 78

Access 80

Presentation 82

Networking 84

Knowledge Maintenance and Management 86

Security 89

Interoperability 90

Integration 93

The Need to Think Now 94

Part II. Coping with Uncertainty

Chapter 4 Incorporating Information Technology in Defense Planning / Martin C. Libicki 103

Modest Propositions About the Future 103

Real Revolutions on the Physical Battlefield 107

Hitting What Can Be Seen 107

From Contingency to Necessity 112

The Coming Architecture of Military Organization 114

Conventional War, Hyperwar, and Mud Warfare 117

False Revolutions on the Virtual Battlefield 119

What Is Information Warfare? 119

Antisensor Operations 121

Electronic Warfare 123

Command-and-Control Warfare 124

Psychological Operations 125

The Ghost in the Machine 126

The Lesson of September 11 128

Chapter 5 Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning / Paul K. Davis 131

Why So Many Surprises? 132

Conceptual Strategic Planning 134

Uncertainty-Sensitive Strategic Planning 134

Operationalizing Strategic Planning in Portfolio-Management Terms 138

Capabilities-Based Planning 141

Information Technology and Mission-System Analysis 144

Multiple Objectives and Measures 145

The Concept of a Scenario Space (an Assumptions Space) 146

Choices and Resource Allocation 151

Chapter 6 Planning the Future Military Workforce / Harry J. Thie 157

Military Human Capital 159

Historical Size, Source, and Composition of the Active Force 159

Ongoing Revolutions: Composition, Characteristics, and Attributes 165

Looking to the Future 169

Manpower and Personnel Analysis 172

The Process 172

Choosing Among Alternatives, an Example 174

Chapter 7 The Soldier of the 21st Century / James R. Hosek 181

Visions of the Future 182

Cyber Soldier 182

Information Warrior 183

Peace Operations 184

Rapid Response Force 184

Low-Manning Vessels 184

Evolutionary Change 185

Experience of the All-Volunteer Force 186

Versatility and Leadership 187

Attracting Quality Personnel 189

Economic Theories of Compensation 199

Issues for the Future 207

Chapter 8 Adapting Best Commercial Practices to Defense / Frank Camm 211

What Is a Best Commercial Practice? 213

Commercial Practice: Neither Monolithic nor Easy to Define 214

Why DoD Should Care 215

A BCP That DoD Uses Today: Lean Production 217

What About Best Government Practice? 218

Operational Total Quality Management and BCPs 219

Key Benefits of TQM: Links Between Customers and Processes, and Continuous Improvement of Resulting System 219

TQM Viewed with Great Suspicion by Many in DoD 222

Identifying BCPs 223

Adapting BCPs for Use in DoD 224

Structural Differences Between DoD and Most Best Commercial Firms 227

An Illustrative Example: Strategic Sourcing as a Basket of BCPs 231

BCPs Relevant to DoD's Strategic Goals 233

Key Barriers to DoD's Adaptation of Sourcing BCPs 239

Insights from Commercial Experience on Overcoming Key Barriers 242

Part III. New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Chapter 9 Exploratory Analysis and Implications for Modeling / Paul K. Davis 255

Exploratory Analysis 256

Types of Uncertainty in Modeling 258

Types of Exploratory Analysis 259

Enabling Exploratory Analysis 265

Using Occam's Razor 269

Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling and Model Families 270

Lessons from Recent Experience 278

Appendix Reflecting Uncertainty with Parameters, an Example 282

Chapter 10 Using Exploratory Modeling / Daniel B. Fox 285

The Need for Exploratory Modeling 285

The Joint Integrated Contingency Model 286

Sensitivity Analysis and Exploratory Modeling 288

Doing Exploratory Modeling 290

The Value of Exploratory Modeling 297

Chapter 11 Assessing Military Information Systems / Stuart H. Starr 299

Historical Perspective 300

Context for Assessing Military Information Systems in the 21st Century 304

Additional Complicating and Supporting Factors 307

NATO Code of Best Practice 309

Advances over the Past 25 Years 319

Residual Challenges: A New Agenda 320

Chapter 12 The "Day After" Methodology and National Security Analysis / David Mussington 323

The Methodology in Brief 324

Applications and Exercise Development 326

Strategic Information Warfare 327

Cyberpayments and Money Laundering 330

Comparison of the Two Implementations of the Methodology 333

The Day After and Analytic Independence 335

The Value of the Day After 337

Chapter 13 Using Electronic Meeting Systems to Aid Defense Decisions / Stuart E. Johnson 339

Prioritizing Naval Programs: An Example of an EMS in Use 342

The Challenge 342

Overview of Methodology 344

Other Possible Uses 358.

Notes:

"MR-1576-RC"--- p. [4] of cover.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0833032925

0833032895

OCLC:

50725086