Health and health care 2010 : the forecast, the challenge / prepared by the Institute for the Future.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Institute for the Future.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Medical care--United States--Forecasting.

Medical care.

Public health.

Forecasting.

United States.

Public health--United States--Forecasting.

Delivery of Health Care--trends.

Medical Subjects:

Delivery of Health Care--trends.

United States.

Forecasting.

Physical Description:

xxiv, 400 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm

Edition:

Second edition.

Other Title:

Health and health care twenty ten

Health & health care 2010

Place of Publication:

San Francisco : Jossey-Bass, 2003.

Summary:

Institute for the Future has been leading research in the future of health and health care since 1985. In Health and Health Care 2010, the Institute analyzed and summarized research data from all corners of the health care world to produce a landmark study of where medicine, nursing, health services, and public health are headed. The award-winning publication was adopted by researchers, faculty, students, executives, and consultants as the sourcebook on health care trends. In this substantially updated and expanded second edition, the Institute offers a current analysis on the trends and emerging visions of dimensions of America's health and health care.

Health and Health Care 2010, Second Edition, offers well-researched coverage of health insurance, managed care, health care providers, the health workforce, medical technologies, information technologies, consumerism, public health services, mental health, child health, health of the elderly, chronic care, health behaviors, and more. Each of the volume's topics starts with historical background leading into the contemporary setting and is followed with predicted short-term developments and forecasts reaching to the year 2010. Acknowledging the difficulty of long-term predictions, even by experts, the projections are cast as "stormy," "long and winding," or "sunny."

Contents:

Chapter 1 Health and Health Care Forecast: Executive Summary 1

Legislation 1

Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumers 2

Payers and Health Care Costs 4

Health Plans and Insurers 5

Hospitals and Physicians 5

Medical and Information Technologies 6

Care Processes and Medical Management 8

Public Health 8

Three Scenarios 10

Chapter 2 Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease: Increasing Diversity 17

The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longer 17

The Face of America Continues to Change-Diversity Is Increasing 19

Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes Is Widening 20

The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness, and Lifestyle Behaviors 21

Chapter 3 Health Care's Demand Side: Changing Trends in Growth Rates 1960-2010 25

Historical Trends 25

The Issues: What Drives Cost Increases? 26

Market Dynamics 28

The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percent 29

The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10-Year Outlook 32

Wild Cards 32

Chapter 4 Health Insurance: The Three-Tiered Model 35

Scope of Employment-Based Coverage 35

The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance? 37

The Forecast: Source of Insurance

Where Are the People? ... 39

... and What Type of Insurance Will They Have? 42

Tiering Will Increase 43

Wild Cards 43

Chapter 5 Managed Care: Experiments in Reinvention 47

The Issues: Managed Care is out of Balance 47

Drivers 49

Regulation May Have Cost Consequences 51

Potential Barriers to IT Implementation 52

The Forecast: Experiments in Reinvention 54

Managed Care 2010: Patterns of Power 60

Wild Cards 64

Chapter 6 Health Care Providers: Themes of the Future Delivery System 67

Intermediaries 68

Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Delivery 74

Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decade 78

Medical Management: The New Arena of Activity 82

What Happens to Hospitals? 84

Wild Cards 92

Chapter 7 Health Care Workforce: Future Supply and Demand 95

Physicians 95

Nurses 103

Physicians' Assistants 105

Future Employment 106

Pharmacists 107

Wild Cards 108

Chapter 8 Medical Technologies: Effects on Care 111

Rational Drug Design 112

Advances in Imaging 114

Minimally Invasive Surgery 117

Genetic Mapping and Testing 120

Gene Therapy 123

Vaccines 126

Artificial Blood 128

Xenotransplantation 129

Stem Cell Technologies 131

Wild Cards 132

Chapter 9 Information Technologies: Will Health Care Join in the Information Age? 135

Base Technologies 135

The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Care 138

Progression of Information Technology into Health Care 145

Wild Cards 146

Chapter 10 Health Care Consumers: The Haves and the Have-Nots 149

Three Tiers of Health Care Consumers 151

Forecast and Assumptions 156

Wild Cards 162

Chapter 11 Public Health Services: A Challenging Future 165

The History of Public Health in the United States 165

Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Today 169

Technology 175

Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perception 176

Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicine 178

The Future: Scenarios and Forecasts 182

Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issues 183

Chapter 12 Mental Health: The Hope of Science and Services 187

Facing the Problem and the Facts 189

Determining Priorities for Public Spending 190

Change Agents in Research 194

Mental Health Services Changes in the Next Decade 201

Policy and Legislation 210

Chapter 13 Children's Health: A Good Investment 219

What Keeps Kids Healthy? Access and Environment 220

Access to Health Services: Enough Providers? 225

The Impact of Environment 227

Physical Environment and Increasing Chronic Illness 230

How Are We Doing? 233

What's in Store? 240

Wild Cards 245

Chapter 14 Health and Health Care of America's Seniors: The Future Awaits Us 251

The Demographics of an Aging Population 251

The Economic Status of Seniors 256

Health Status of Seniors 259

Long-Term Care 267

Elder Health Care Financing Through Medicare 270

Implications 273

Chapter 15 Chronic Care in America: An Evolving Crisis 279

Chronically Misunderstood: The Who, When, and What of Chronic Illness 279

Chronic Care Today: How We Got Here 284

Forecast 289

Implications 289

Chapter 16 Disease Management: Weaving Disease Management into the Fabric of Patient Care 299

Diseases Being Managed 299

A Disease Management Primer 300

Drivers and Barriers on the Path Ahead 301

Forecast 305

The Pace of Change 308

Chapter 17 Health Behaviors: Small Steps in the Right Direction 311

Alcohol and Drug Abuse in America 312

Injury Prevention: A Focus on Guns 324

Tobacco Use and Health 329

Wild Cards 333

Chapter 18 Expanded Perspective on Health: Beyond the Curative Model 337

Definition of Health 339

Stress 340

Socioeconomic Status as a Determinant of Health 341

What's New? Why Now? 342

Consumer Expectations 343

Deteriorating Health Conditions 344

Global Health Perspective 345

The Future: Shifting Paradigms 346

The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution? 348

Wild Cards 349

The Reactions 351.

Notes:

"Support for this publication was provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Princeton, NJ, January 2003."

Includes bibliograpical references and index.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

078795974X

OCLC:

52208758