Modelling complex projects / Terry Williams.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Williams, Terry.

Contributor:

Charles R. Anderson Endowment Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Project management--Simulation methods.

Project management.

Project management--Simulation methods--Case studies.

Simulation methods.

Physical Description:

vii, 276 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Chichester ; New York : Wiley, [2002]

Summary:

It is widely acknowledged that traditional Project Management techniques are no longer sufficient, as projects become more complex and client's demand reduced timescales. Problems that arise include inadequate planning and risk analysis, ineffective project monitoring and control, and uninformed post-mortem analysis. Effective modelling techniques, which capture the complexities of such projects, are therefore necessary for adequate project management. This book looks at those issues, describes some modelling techniques, then discusses their merits and possible synthesis. This is the only project management book that deals with Project Modelling. Features case studies throughout. Places the various approaches to Project Modelling within a coherent framework, and gives an objective overview.

Contents:

2 Projects 13

What are project objectives? 15

Basic project management techniques 18

3 Modelling 31

What is a model? 31

Why do we model? 35

Modelling in practice 40

Validation 44

4 What is a complex project? 49

What is complexity? Structural complexity 50

What is complexity? Uncertainty 55

What is complexity? Summary 58

Increasing complexity 59

Tools and techniques

and the way ahead 62

5 Discrete effects and uncertainty 65

Uncertainty and risk in projects 66

Cost risk: additive calculations 78

Time risk: effects in a network 89

Analysing time risk: simulation 96

Criticality and cruciality 104

The three criteria and beyond 115

6 Discrete effects: collecting data 119

Collecting subjective data: identification 121

Collecting subjective data: general principles of quantification 123

Collecting subjective data: simple activity-duration models 126

Effect of targets 131

7 The soft effects 137

Some key project characteristics 139

Client behaviour and external effects on the project 140

Management decisions 146

Project staffing 149

Subjective effects within the project 151

Summary and looking forward 154

8 Systemic effects 155

The effects 155

A brief introduction to cause mapping 157

Qualitative modelling: simple compounding 158

Qualitative modelling: loops 161

Quantitative modelling 163

9 System dynamics modelling 167

Introduction to system dynamics 167

Using system dynamics with mapping 171

Elements of models 175

Production elements 176

Other elements 188

Managerial actions 189

How effects compound 193

Validation 195

10 Hybrid methods: the way forward? 199

Adapting standard models using lessons learned from SD 200

Using conventional tools to generate SD models 205

Using SD and conventional models to inform each other 206

Extending SD: discrete events and stochastic SD 208

The need for intelligence 210

11 The role of the modeller 215

Project management 215

What makes a good modeller? 217

Stages of project modelling 219

Appendix Extension of time claims 235.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages [249]-263) and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Charles R. Anderson Endowment Fund.

ISBN:

0471899453

OCLC:

44101885