Quantitative conservation biology : theory and practice of population viability analysis / William F. Morris, Daniel F. Doak.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Morris, William F., 1961-

Contributor:

Doak, Daniel F., 1961-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Population viability analysis--Mathematical models.

Population viability analysis.

Conservation biology.

Mathematical models.

Physical Description:

xvi, 480 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Sunderland, Mass. : Sinauer Associates, [2002]

Contents:

1 What Is Population Viability Analysis, and How Can It Be Used in Conservation Decision-Making? 1

Potential Products and Uses of PVA 2

Types of Population Viability Analysis 8

A Roadmap to This Book 10

Our Modeling Philosophy: Keep It Simple 12

2 The Causes and Quantification of Population Vulnerability 15

Mean Vital Rates and Population Viability 16

Temporal Variability in Vital Rates 18

Other Processes Influencing Viability 36

Quantifying Population Viability 43

3 Count-Based PVA: Density-Independent Models 51

Population Dynamics in a Random Environment 52

The Relationship between the Probability of Extinction and the Parameters [mu] and [sigma superscript 2] 58

Using Count Data to Estimate the Population Growth Parameters [mu] and [sigma superscript 2]: An Illustration Using the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Census 64

Using Estimates of [mu] and [sigma superscript 2] to Calculate Probability of Extinction 79

Using Extinction Time Estimates 87

Key Assumptions of Simple Count-Based PVAs 89

When to Use This Method 96

4 Count-Based PVA: Incorporating Density Dependence, Demographic Stochasticity, Correlated Environments, Catastrophes, and Bonanzas 99

Density Dependence 100

Combined Effects of Demographic and Environmental Stochasticity 127

Environmental Autocorrelation 133

Catastrophes, Bonanzas, and Other Highly Variable Effects 141

Appendix An Overview of Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation 147

5 Accounting for Observation Error in Count-Based PVAs 151

Potential Sources of Observation Error 152

Considerations for Reducing Observation Error before a Census Is Initiated 155

Quantifying Observation Errors while a Census is Being Conducted 157

Correcting for Observation Errors after the Census Data Have Been Collected 158

A Directory to More Advanced Methods for Estimating Parameters in the Face of Observation Error 179

6 Demographic PVAs: Using Demographic Data to Build Stochastic Projection Matrix Models 181

Overview of Procedures for Building Projection Matrices 182

Step 1 Conducting a Demographic Study 183

Step 2 Establishing Classes 186

Step 3 Estimating Vital Rates 196

Step 4 Building the Projection Matrix 204

Putting It All Together: Estimating Projection Matrices for Mountain Golden Heather 210

7 Demographic PVAs: Using Projection Matrices to Assess Population Growth and Viability 215

Structured Populations in a Deterministic Environment 217

Growth and Extinction Risk of Structured Populations in a Variable Environment 228

8 Demographic PVAs Based on Vital Rates: Removing Sampling Variation and Incorporating Large Variance, Correlated Environments, Demographic Stochasticity, and Density Dependence into Matrix Models 251

Estimation and Construction of Stochastic Models Based on Vital Rates 253

Simulations to Estimate Population Rate and Extinction Risk 274

Simulating Demographic Stochasticity 305

Including Density Dependence in Matrix Models 310

9 Using Demographic PVA Models in Management: Sensitivity Analysis 325

The Basic Idea of Sensitivity Analysis 326

Sensitivity Analysis for Deterministic Matrices 331

Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic Matrix Models 351

Sensitivity Analysis for Density-Dependent Models 369

10 Population Dynamics across Multiple Sites: The Interaction of Dispersal and Environmental Correlation 373

Terminology for Multi-Site PVAs 375

Multi-Site Processes and Data Needs 375

A Schematic Breakdown of Multi-Site Situations 398

Using Occam's Razor in Multi-Site PVAs 402

11 Methods of Viability Analysis for Spatially Structured Populations 403

Patch-Based Approaches 403

Count-Based Approaches 423

Demographic Approaches 432

Using Multi-Site PVAs with Care 440

12 Critiques and Cautions: When to Perform (and When Not to Perform) a Population Viability Analysis 443

Critiques and Criticisms of PVA 444

General Recommendations and Cautions for Conducting a Population Viability Analysis 450.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0878935460

OCLC:

49320367