Market prophets : can forecasters predict the financial future? / David Stamp.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Stamp, David, 1958-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting.

Physical Description:

xiv, 269 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

London ; New York : Reuters, 2002.

Summary:

The fact that the shrewdest figure in global economics is unable to spot a recession -- even when it is happening around him -- proves how tough financial forecasting can be. But most people must make decisions which demand a look into the future, from Greenspan setting interest rates for a $10 trillion economy to the rest of us handling our personal finances. To make these choices we have only two options: rely on a forecast or rely on fate. Market Prophets looks into the industry, casting light on its successes and its failures, its gurus and its skeptics. It explains what financial forecasting is and examines how and why it is done. It analyzes the forecasters' track record, showing whether they are consistently right or merely produce informed guesswork. It tells us whether we should respect or ignore the pundits. It also covers the events and profiles the personalities behind them: from celebrity analysts including Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget and the professional doomsters to examples of heroic forecasting failures such as how Wall Street backed Enron right up to its collapse and how the IMF missed the emerging markets crisis of the late 1990s. David Stamp is no economist or trader and his investigations into the art and science of forecasting are objective, authoritative and highly accessible. Much of the book is based on interviews with economists, stock analysts and academics with global appeal. Aimed at 'consumers' of forecasts, the people who make investments or borrowing decisions large or small, Market Prophets offers a glimpse of how the forecasters work and whether or not they succeed.

Contents:

1 The harsh light of hindsight 1

2 Dismal science, dismal record? 21

3 The one-handed forecaster 47

4 Data watch 60

5 Recession watch 78

6 Verdict on the IMF 104

7 Rate watch 110

8 Fame 150

9 The price of rice 168

10 Doctor Doom 192

11 Terminator technology 209

12 Black box, black hole 231

13 Seer suckers? 242.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 256-259) and index.

ISBN:

1903684072

OCLC:

49396348