Iraq's military capabilities in 2002 : a dynamic net assessment / Anthony H. Cordesman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cordesman, Anthony H.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Defenses.

Armed Forces.

Iraq--Armed Forces.

Iraq.

Iraq--Defenses.

Iraq--Military policy.

Military policy.

United States--Military policy.

United States.

Physical Description:

viii, 100 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : CSIS Press, 2002.

Contents:

1. Iraq's Current Military Forces 1

The Iraqi Army and Key Security Elements 1

Strength 1

Deployment 2

The Iraqi Air Force 6

The Iraqi Navy 7

Iraqi Operational Capabilities 7

The Problem of Sanctions and Equipment Modernization 9

2. The Problem of Dynamic Net Assessment 10

Uncertainties and Intangibles 10

Defining the Key Contingencies 12

3. Iraq Faces Continued Containment and Air War 14

Containment without Effective Inspection 14

Containment with "Effective" Inspection 16

Continuing Low-Level Air War over the No-Fly Zones 18

Iraq Becomes More Confident over Time 18

4. Iraq versus Its Neighbors 20

Unforeseen Events Thrust Iraq into Another Confrontation with the Kurds or Shi'ites 20

Kurdish Contingencies 20

Shi'ite Contingencies 21

Reaction to a U.S.-led Coalition 22

Iraq versus Iran 23

Iraq Risks a Desperate Attack on Kuwait 25

Iraq's Offensive Capabilities in Other Contingencies 28

5. Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction 30

Iraqi Missile Developments and Possible Capabilities 30

Iraqi CBRN Developments and Possible Capabilities 34

Current War-fighting Capability "Guesstimates" 39

Possible U.S. Response 39

Israeli Response 44

Turkish and Southern Gulf Response 46

Future Risks and Breakout Problems 46

Iraq Uses Covert Action or a Terrorist/Extremist Proxy in Major Attacks against the United States, Britain, Israel, or a Gulf State 47

6. Iraq versus the United States and a U.S.-led Coalition 50

U.S. Forces and Allied Capabilities 51

The Total Pool of U.S. Forces 51

Uncertain Role of Allied and Neighboring States 52

Current U.S. Capabilities in the Gulf 55

Land Warfare 55

Air and Missile Warfare 59

U.S. Airpower in Recent Regional Conflicts (table 6.1) 60

Covert Overthrow 62

Opposition Ground Forces and U.S. Airpower: "Afghan Option" 65

Use of Opposition Ground Forces 65

Limits to the Afghan Lesson 66

How Much U.S. Airpower Is Enough? The Iraqi SEAD Challenge 67

How Much U.S. Support Is Enough? Strengths of U.S. Strike/Attack Air and Missile Power 68

How Much U.S. Support Is Enough? Limits and Key Uncertainties Affecting the Iraqi Response 69

The Nation-building Problem 71

The High Cost of Failure 72

"Attack from the North" Option 73

U.S. Operations in a Major U.S.-led Coalition Military Effort 74

"Coalition Heavy" Strategy 74

"Coalition Light" or "Inside Out" Strategy 76

Amphibious and Vertical Envelopment Operations 78

The Value of Coalition Military Support 78

How Much U.S. Force Is Enough? 79

Factors Shaping Iraqi Operations in a Major U.S.-led Coalition Military Effort 80

The Key Military Issue Is the Cost to the United States of Winning 81

7. Conflict Termination and Nation Building 82

A Iraqi versus Neighboring Forces in 2002 84

B Measures of Combat Equipment Strength, 2002 87

C Gulf Arms Buys by Supplier, 1987-2000 88

D Total Gulf New Arms Agreements from the Gulf War to 2000 90

E Total Gulf New Arms Deliveries from the Gulf War to 2000 91

F Total Gulf New Arms Agreements and Deliveries, 1997-2000 92

G Iraq's Massive Military Effort before the Gulf War 93

H Iraqi Cumulative Arms Import Deficit Enforced by UN Sanctions 94

I Overview of Iraqi Arms Purchases 95

J Iraqi Dependence on Decaying, Obsolete, or Obsolescent Major Weapons 97

K The Problem of Iraqi Military Production 99.

Notes:

"September 2002."

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

0892064161

OCLC:

50404116