Economic forecasting for management : possibilities and limitations / Hans Georg Graf.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Graf, Hans Georg.

Contributor:

Simon Nelson Patten Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Managerial economics.

Economic forecasting.

Physical Description:

xiv, 248 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Westport, Conn. : Quorum Books, 2002.

Summary:

Provides decision makers with the tools necessary to evaluate the merits of various types of economic and business forecasting methods.

Contents:

Part I Forecasting and Futures Research

An Unequal Pair

1 Fundamentals of Human Behavior 3

2 Dimensions of Forecasting 19

3 Evaluation Criteria 41

4 The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast 45

5 A Common Language 49

Part II Long-Term Economic Forecasting

6 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 59

7 The Evolution of Economies 65

8 Impossibility of (Long-Term) Forecasting 73

9 Macroeconomic Perspectives 79

10 Methods for Long-term Forecasting 87

11 Working with Global Models

Learning and Predicting 101

12 Delphi Technique 113

13 Cross-Impact Analysis 117

Part III Scenarios for Strategy Development

14 Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management 123

15 Scenarios as Instruments of Forecasting 131

16 Working with Scenarios at the Corporate Level 143

17 Introduction of Scenario Thinking in Corporate Policy 149

Part IV Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting

18 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 161

19 Business Cycle Forecasting 171

20 Market Forecasting 187

21 Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses 193

22 Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves 201

23 Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect 207

24 Transformation of Market Forecasts into Corporate Decisions 215

25 In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in Economic Forecasting? 227.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages [231]-240) and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Simon Nelson Patten Fund.

Presented by The American Academy of Political and Social Science in memory of Simon Nelson Patten; 2002/2003

ISBN:

1567206018

OCLC:

48871523