Slippery math in public affairs : price tag and defense / William J. Adams ; with illustrations by Ramunė B. Adams.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Adams, William J.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Social sciences--Statistical methods.

Truthfulness and falsehood.

Physical Description:

xiii, 247 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

New York : Marcel Dekker, [2002]

Contents:

Part 1 Slippery Numbers in the Public Arena 1

1 Boldfaced Lies 4

The Homeless Homeless Figure 5

Indefensible Defense Figures 5

Blowing Smoke on Secondary Smoke 6

Shenanigans in Science 7

The Drug Testing Balloon That Popped 8

2 Something's Amiss 10

It Sounds Good, But ... 11

Accounting Alchemy: From Lead to Gold 12

Get It "Right" This Time 14

Conflicts of Interest 15

Wounded Military Figures 19

A Question of "Accuracy" 21

3 Coming Up with the Numbers 23

For "Real" Accuracy, Count Them All. Right? 24

Polling and Its Perils 25

Beware of ... 31

The Scope of Polling 41

Is There More to It Than What the Polls Say? 41

Media Coverage of Polling 42

Sexuality by the Numbers, or Not? 45

The Future of Polling? 47

4 Political and Ideological Coloring 49

Census Politics 49

Soviet Military Outlays: Reality or Invention? 52

Fudge Factories 53

From Politically Incorrect to Nobel Prize 57

Contradict Established Orthodoxy at Your Peril 59

5 Numbers, Numbers, Everywhere 62

Are We on the "Right" Number Trail? 62

A Visit to Huxley College 65

Measuring the Nation's Well-Being 67

A Precursor of Economic Collapse? 68

What's the "Best" Measure of the Iron Horse? 70

6 There's Less to It Than Meets the Eye 72

Statistical Link vs. Cause 73

Does Cigarette Smoking "Cause" Cancer? 74

It's Dangerous to Be a Democrat? 76

Do Rankings Say It All? 77

Lork from Mork 81

Math to the Rescue? 82

Madness over Math 86

Numbers in Perspective 87

How Well Chosen Are the Numbers? How Reliable Are They? What Interpretation Is Appropriate? Test Questions 90

Poll Considerations 95

Consider, for Example, ... 102

Strengthening the Shield Against Bogus Numbers 114

Part 2 Math Model Portraits 117

8 What's the Cost of Smoking? 120

A Math Model for the Cost of Smoking 121

Additional Strings Attached 123

Disagreement 124

Who's "Right": Jules or Janet? 126

"Precise" Mathematical Reasoning According to Uncle George 127

9 Andy and Rasa Take Vacations 129

Andy Plans a Trip 129

Rasa's Trip 132

NINO vs. RIRO 134

10 Math Model Development 136

The Math Model Building Process 136

A Second Dimension of Math Modeling 139

Which Solution Should Be Implemented? 141

"Precise" Mathematical Reasoning According to Bottom-Line Bob 142

But I Used a Computer! 144

11 As Ye Sow, So Shall Ye Reap 146

Base Closings 147

Ideology vs. Economic Reality 148

I Prefer "Mathematical Simplicity," But ... 150

Let's Assume We Have a Can Opener 152

Coming to Grips with Productivity 154

Coming to Grips with Inflation 155

What's the "Best" Math Model? 157

The Hazards of Long-Range Forecasts 159

12 Hyperbole and Hype 162

The Art of Making Horse Feathers Look Good 163

Balance the Budget 164

NAFTA Will Increase Jobs 165

The Consumer Price Index Must Be Reformed! 167

Social Security Is Collapsing 171

13 Lessons from Chapters 8 to 12 174

Perspective on Math Proof 175

Building a Defense Against Questionable Math Models 176

Consider, for Example, ... 182

Building a Defense Against Hyperbole and Hype 185

Part 3 The Price Tag 189

14 The Numbers You Don't Know Can Hurt You 191

Side Effects? What Side Effects? 191

Tell More, or Hush Hush 193

The "Value" of a Life 195

Dangerous Numbers 196

Shield with a Hole 197

15 Consequences of Math Fiction 199

A Faulty, No-Fault Divorce Statistic 199

Drugged Drug Numbers 201

Advertising, TV Options, and Questionable Numbers 202

Balance the Budget and Pay Off the National Debt 205

Ripples 207

Pennywise and Pound Foolish 208

Part 4 Preventive Medicine: Education 211

16 Mathematics Education 213

Math Education for What? 213

Math Education for Public Affairs 215

Computers to the Rescue? 218.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 229-239) and index.

ISBN:

0824707907

OCLC:

49875235