Scenarios in public policy / Gill Ringland.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ringland, Gill.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Strategic planning.

Public administration--Forecasting.

Public administration.

Public administration--Decision making.

Forecasting.

Physical Description:

xii, 265 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Chichester ; New York : Wiley, [2002]

Summary:

In this practical and comprehensive guide Gill Ringland shows how scenario thinking can help public sector organizations think about uncertainty in a structured way and manage their own future.

In use at Royal/Dutch Shell since the 1960s, scenario thinking is now widely accepted as a valuable method for making informed decisions. This book focuses on the use of scenarios for developing public policy, whether by engaging the public or for use within government. Drawing on a wealth of global examples Scenarios in Public Policy will provide managers at all levels with the knowledge, best practice guidelines and a practical toolkit to use scenarios in the public sector.

It is worth remembering that everything possible today was at one time impossible, it therefore follows that everything impossible today may at sometime in the future be possible. But, most importantly, in the end the future is not something that happens to us. The future is what we do. This book is for anyone who realizes that the future will no longer replicate the past but is still struggling to come to terms with, and cope with, the uncertainties of the future.

Contents:

Part I Scenarios in Public Policy 7

I.1 Four scenarios for public education in Seattle 11

I.2 Rotterdam and Arnhem 20

I.3 Mission and consequences in Bueren 23

I.4 Scottish Enterprise's use of scenarios 31

I.5 Tackling big issues in 24 hours 42

I.6 Scenarios for sustainable development 51

I.7 VISIONS scenarios on the future of Europe 57

I.8 Foresight Futures 2001 65

I.9 Lessons learned 77

Part II Scenarios in the Public Sector 81

II.1 US General Services Agency

scenarios for the federal workplace 83

II.2 Consignia and scenario thinking 94

II.3 Scenarios at the dti 104

II.4 Scenario planning goes to Rome 111

II.5 Decision making in the public sector 124

II.6 Lessons learned 132

Part III Making Scenarios Work 135

III.1 The environment for scenario thinking 137

III.2 The stages of a project 145

III.4 Deciding the question 160

III.5 Interviews and workshops 167

III.6 Scenario creation 176

III.7 Scenarios to plans 185

III.8 Linking scenarios into the organization 194

III.9 Main points 200

Part IV Scenario Thinking 203

IV.1 Scenarios and strategy 205

IV.2 Strategy and scenario planning in the public sector 211

IV.3 Where are we now? 217

IV.4 Forecasts 223

IV.5 Evolutionary models for cultural change 230

IV.6 Comparison of global scenarios 242

IV.7 Where next? 250.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0470843837

OCLC:

48753145