Risk analysis : foundations, models, and methods / by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cox, Louis A., Jr. (Louis Anthony), 1957-

Series:

International series in operations research & management science ; 45.

International series in operations research & management science ; 45

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Health risk assessment--United States.

Health risk assessment.

United States.

Environmental health--United States.

Environmental health.

Medical policy--United States.

Medical policy.

Physical Description:

xiii, 556 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.

Place of Publication:

Boston : Kluwer Academic Publishers, [2002]

Contents:

Chapter 1 Introduction and Basic Risk Models

1.1 Distinguishing Characteristics Of Risk Analysis 3

1.2 The Traditional Health Risk Analysis Framework 6

1.3 Defining Risks: Source, Target, Effect, Mechanism 8

2. Basic Quantitative Risk Models 10

2.1 Risk as Probability of a Binary Event 12

2.2 A Binary Event with Time: Hazard Rate Models 15

2.3 Calculating and Interpreting Hazard Functions 20

2.4 Hazard Models for Binary Events 25

2.5 Probabilities of Causation for a Binary Event 27

2.6 Risk Models with Non-Binary Consequences 32

3. Health Risks from Human Activities 34

3.1 Risk Management Decision Support Sub-Models 35

Chapter 2 Risk Assessment Modeling 43

1.1 Approaches to QRA: Probability, Statistical, Engineering 49

2. Conditional Probability Framework for Risk Calculations 53

2.1 Calculating Average Individual Risks when Individuals Respond 54

2.2 Population Risks Modeled by Conditional Probabilities 60

2.3 Trees, Risks and Martingales 64

2.4 Value of Information in Risk Management Decisions 67

3. Basic Engineering Modeling Techniques 71

3.1 Compartmental Flow Simulation Models 71

3.2 Applications to Pharmacokinetic Models 74

3.3 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis 80

3.4 Applied Probability and Stochastic Transition Models 84

4. Introduction to Exposure Assessment 90

5. A Case Study: Simulating Food Safety 92

5.1 Background: The Potential Human Health Hazard 93

5.2 Risk Management Setting: Many Decisions Affect Risk 95

5.3 Methods and Data: Overview of Simulation Model 98

5.4 Results: Baseline and Sensitivity Analysis of Options 113

5.5 Uncertainty Analysis and Discussion 119

Chapter 3 Statistical Risk Modeling 133

2. Statistical Dose-Response Modeling 135

2.1 Define Exposure and Response Variables, Collect Data 136

2.2 Select a Model Form for the Dose-Response Relation 152

2.3 Estimate Risk, Confidence Limits, and Model Fit 167

2.4 Interpret Results 175

3. Progress in Statistical Risk Modeling 184

3.1 Dealing with Model Uncertainty and Variable Selection 186

3.2 Dealing with Missing Data: New Algorithms and Ideas 189

3.3 Mixture Distribution Models for Unobserved Variables 192

3.4 Summary of Advances in Statistical Risk Modeling 198

4. A Statistical Case Study: Soil Sampling 200

Chapter 4 Causality 217

2. Statistical vs. Causal Risk Modeling 219

3. Criteria for Causation 224

3.1 Traditional Epidemiological Criteria for Causation 224

3.2 Proposed Criteria for Inferring Probable Causation 229

3.3 Bayesian Evidential Reasoning and Refutationism 234

4. Testing Causal Graph Models with Data 240

4.1 Causal Graph Models and Knowledge Representation 246

4.2 Meaning of Causal Graphs 250

4.3 Testing Hypothesized Causal Graph Structures 253

4.4 Creating Causal Graph Structures from Data 259

4.5 Search, Optimization, and Model-Averaging Heuristics 265

5. Using Causal Graphs in Risk Analysis 269

5.1 Drawing Probabilistic Inferences in DAG Models 269

5.2 Applications of DAG Inferences in Risk Assessment 274

5.3 Using DAG Models to Make Predictions 276

5.4 Decision-Making and Optimization 279

6. Attributable Risks in Causal Graphs 283

6.1 Why is Risk Attribution Hard? 283

6.2 Principles for Risk Attribution 288

Chapter 5 Individual Risk Management Decisions 301

2. Value Functions and Risk Profiles 302

3. Rational Individual Risk-Management via Expected Utility (EU) 307

3.1 EU Decision-Modeling Basics 308

3.2 Decision-Making Algorithms and Technologies 310

3.3 Optimization Modeling for Risk Management Decisions 314

3.4 Axioms for EU Theories 319

4. EU Theory Challenges and Alternatives to EU Theory 321

4.1 Cognitive Heuristics and Biases Violate Reduction 322

4.2 Other Violations of EU Axioms 332

5. Subjective Probability and Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) 334

6. Beyond SEU: Adaptive Decision-Making with Unknown Models 344

Chapter 6 Choosing Among Risk Profiles 351

2. Basic EU Theory for Single-Attribute Consequences 352

2.1 Certainty Equivalents 353

2.2 Risk Attitudes, Risk Aversion, and Prospect Theory 354

3. Intrinsic Value and Exponential Utility 358

4. Non-Exponential SAUT Utility Functions 362

5. Objective Comparisons of Risk Profiles 365

5.1 First-Order Stochastic Dominance (FSD) 368

5.2 Extensions of FSD 382

6. Higher-Order Stochastic Dominance and Risk Definitions 384

6.1 Extensions of SSD 389

Chapter 7 Multi-Attribute, Multi-Person, and Multi-Period Risks 393

2. Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) 394

2.1 Basics of Multiattribute Value and Utility Theory 394

2.2 Some Practical Aspects of MAUT 400

3. Applications of MAUT to Health Risks 401

3.1 Using MAUT to Develop Health Status Indicators 401

3.2 Independence Conditions and QALYs 402

3.3 Money Values for Reductions in Risks to Life 403

3.4 Perceived Risk of Risk Profiles 408

4. Risks to Multiple People: Risk Equity 411

5. Beyond MAUT: MCDM Approaches 416

6. Choosing Among Temporal Prospects 419

6.1 Discounting of Delayed and Gradual Consequences 419

6.2 Sequential Choices and Effects of Event Sequencing 426

6.3 Repeated Choices and Iterated Prospects 427

6.4 Preferences for Timing of Uncertainty Resolution 427

6.5 Changeable and Uncertain Preferences 431

6.6 Choosing Among Stochastic Processes for Health States 433

Chapter 8 Multi-Party Risk Management Decision Processess 441

1. Introduction: Risk Management Decision Processes 441

2. Social Utility: Modern Utilitarianism 453

3. Game Theory: Basic Ideas 456

3.1 Evolutionary Game Theory and Learning 459

3.2 Mechanism Design 459

4. Two-Person Games of Risk Management 461

4.1 Prisoner's Dilemma: Individual vs. Group Rationality 461

4.2 Moral Hazard in Insurance 464

4.3 Inefficiencies Due to Asymmetric Private Information 467

4.4 Designing Product Liability Standards 468

4.5 Principal-Agent (PA) Models 471

4.6 Bargaining and Contracts for Allocating Liability 474

4.7 Litigation and Bargaining Under Arbitration 483

4.8 Potential Roles for a Social Decision-Maker (SDM) 486

5. Property Rights and Risk Externalities 488

6. Agreeing on Rules: Social Contracts 492

6.1 Bargaining from Behind a "Veil of Ignorance" 495

6.2 Collective Choice and Social Choice Functions (SCFs) 496

6.3 Fair Allocation, Fair Division, and Fair Auctions 501

7. Introduction to Risk Communication 504

7.1 Toward More Effective Risk Presentations 504

7.2 Toward Designs for Better Risk Management Processes 509.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 515-543) and index.

ISBN:

0792376153

OCLC:

48144500