Meteorology at the millennium / edited by R. P. Pearce.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Pearce, R. P. (Robert Penrose), 1924-

Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)

Series:

International geophysics series ; v. 83.

International geophysics series ; v. 83

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Meteorology.

Physical Description:

xvi, 333 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 29 cm.

Place of Publication:

San Diego : Academic Press, [2002]

Summary:

Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines. Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come. The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets. This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

Contents:

Part 1. Weather Prediction at the Millennium

Predicting Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Forecasts / T. N. Palmer

B. The Liouville Equation 3

C. The Probability Density Function of Model Error 5

D. Probability Forecasting by Ensemble Prediction 7

E. Verifying Probability Forecasts 10

F. The Economic Value of Probability Forecasts 11

Extratropical Cyclones An Historical Perspective / A. J. Thorpe

B. The Thermal Theory 14

C. The Bergen School 15

D. Baroclinic Instability Model 17

E. Potential Vorticity Ideas 18

F. Predictability, Forecasting and Observations 20

G. The Future 21

Numerical Methods for Atmospheric General Circulation Models Refinements or Fundamental Advances? / D. L. Williamson

A. Numerical Weather Prediction 23

B. Climate Models 24

C. Nwp Versus Climate Modelling 25

D. Future Evolution of Numerics 26

Mesoscale Mountains and the Larger-scale Atmospheric Dynamics A Review / C. Schar

B. Regime Diagram for Flow Past Topography 30

C. Interactions With the Balanced Larger-Scale Dynamics 34

D. Numerical Simulations of Alpine Wakes 37

E. Outlook 39

The Upscale Turbulent Cascade Shear Layers, Cyclones and Gas Giant Bands / W. R. Peltier, G. R. Stuhne

B. Pairing in Unstratified Shear Flow 44

C. Pairing in Rotating Stratified Flow: Subsynoptic Baroclinic Instability 48

D. Pairing in Vortex Dynamics on the Sphere: Rossby-Wave Arrest of the Upscale Cascade and the "Parity" of Gas Giant Bands 51

The Role of Water in Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate / K. A. Emanuel

A. Historical Overview 62

B. Water in Atmospheric Dynamics 64

C. Water in the Climate System 69

New Observational Technologies Scientific and Societal Impacts / F. Fabry, I. Zawadzki

B. Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere 72

C. Remote Sensors and Their Scientific Impacts 73

D. Societal Impacts 80

Turning Dynamical Ideas into Forecast Practice A Proposal for a Renewed Graphical Summary of the Synoptic Scale Situation / A. Joly, P. Santurette

B. The Existing Graphical Summary Map: Its Importance and Its Problems 84

C. Historical Perspective 86

D. Rationale of A Dynamically Grounded Synoptic Summary 88

E. Examples of Use of the New Graphical Framework 90

F. Potential for Upgrading 98

Appendix The Graphical Code of Anasyg and Presyg 102

Weather Forecasting From Wolly Art to Solid Science / P. Lynch

A. The Prehistory of Scientific Forecasting 106

B. The Beginning of Modern Numerical Weather Prediction 110

C. Numerical Weather Prediction Today 113

Part 2. Climate Variability and Change

Problems in Quantifying Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Earth's Energy Balance / K. P. Shine, E. J. Highwood

B. Estimates of the Global-Mean Radiative Forcing 124

C. Time Variation of Radiative Forcing 126

D. Developments in Studies of the Indirect Aerosol Effect 129

Changes in Climate and Variability over the Last 1000 Years / P. D. Jones

B. The Instrumental Period (1850-) 133

C. Early European Instrumental Records 137

D. The Pre-Instrumental Period (Back to 1000) 137

Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic / J. Hurrell, M. P. Hoerling, C. K. Folland

B. What is the North Atlantic Oscillation and How Does It Impact Regional Climate? 143

C. What are the Mechanisms That Govern North Atlantic Oscillation Variability? 144

D. Concluding Comments on the Other Aspects of North Atlantic Climate Variability 149

Prediction and Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change / J. F. B. Mitchell

B. An Early General Circulation Model Simulation of the Climatic Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 152

C. A Recent Simulation of the Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 153

D. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change 158

E. Some Concluding Remarks 162

Absorption of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere Reconciling Models with Measurements / A. Slingo

B. The Global Radiation Balance 165

C. Satellite Measurements 166

D. Absorption by the Surface 168

E. Absorption by the Atmosphere 168

The Impact of Satellite Observations of the Earth's Spectrum on Climate Research / J. E. Harries

A. The Climate Change Detection and Attribution Problem 174

B. Satellite Spectral Signatures of Climate Change 175

C. Recent Work on Spectral Signatures 176

D. Iris and Img: Change of Olr (v) Between 1970 and 1997 177

E. Analysis of Img and Iris Data 178

Part 3. The Atmosphere and Oceans

Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction Revisited / M. J. Rodwell

B. Data and Models 186

C. The Analysis Method 187

D. Atmospheric Forcing of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures 188

E. North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 190

F. Potential Seasonal Predictability Based on the Atmosphere General Circulation Model 194

The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System / P. J. Webster, C. Clark, G. Cherikova, J. Fasullo, W. Han, J. Loschnigg, K. Sahami

B. Regulation of the Monsoon Annual Cycle 201

C. Interannual Variability of the Monsoon 206

D. General Theory of Regulation of the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Monsoon System 214

Laminar Flow in the Ocean Ekman Layer / J. T. H. Woods

B. The Effect of a Stable Density Gradient 220

C. The Fatal Flaw 221

D. Flow Visualization 222

E. The Discovery of Laminar Flow 222

F. Fine Structure 222

G. Wave-Induced Shear Instability 222

H. Billow Turbulence 223

I. Reverse Transition 224

J. Revised Paradigm 224

K. One-Dimensional Modelling of the Upper Ocean 224

L. Diurnal Variation 225

M. Buoyant Convection 225

N. Billow Turbulence in the Diurnal Thermocline 225

O. Consequences for the Ekman Current Profile 225

P. Solar Radiation 226

Q. Applications 226

Ocean Observations and the Climate Forecast Problem / C. Wunsch

B. Some History: Observational and Theoretical 233

C. The Perception 234

D. The Reality 238

E. Conclusions Based Upon Misapprehensions 242

Part 4. The Biogeochemical System

Biochemical Connections Between the Atmosphere and the Ocean / P. S. Liss

B. The Chemical Composition of the Earth's Atmosphere 250

C. Air-Sea Exchange of Gases of Importance 250

C. Impact of Atmospheric Dust on Ocean Biochemistry 253

D. Global Perspectives on Biogeochemical Fluxes Across the Air-Sea Interface 256

Modelling Vegetation and the Carbon Cycle as Interactive Elements of the Climate system / P. M. Cox, R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S. A. Spall, I. J. Totterdell

B. Model Description 260

C. Pre-Industrial State 264

D. A First Transient Climate-Carbon Cycle Simulation 268

Part 5. Middle Atmosphere and Solar Physics: Other Planets and Epochs

Some Fundamental Aspects of Atmospheric Dynamics, with a Solar Spinoff / M. E. McIntyre

B. Thermal and Chemical Evidence 284

C. Wave-Induced Momentum Transport: Some Simple Examples 287

D. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) 289

E. The Michelson-Morley Principle 291

F. The Nonacceleration Constraint 291

G. Extratropical Latitudes 291

H. Gyroscopic Pumping 292

I. Rossby- and Gravity-Wave Breaking 294

J. The Jigsaw Puzzle: Barotropic Models 295

K. Generalization to Realistic Stratified Flow 299

L. The Sun's Radiative Interior 299

Atmospheric Dynamics of the Outer Planets / A. P. Ingersoll

B. Voyager Observations of Winds and Temperatures 306

C. Models of Vortices in Shear 308

D. Galileo Probe and Vertical Structure 309

E. Galileo Orbiter Observations of Water and Lightning 312

Palaeoclimate Studies at the Millennium The Role of the Coupled System / P. J. Valdes

B. Pre-Quaternary Palaeoclimates 316

C. Quaternary Palaeoclimates 318

D. Suborbital Timescale Variability 323.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0125480350

OCLC:

47726259