Peace and war : the Arab-Israeli military balance enters the 21st century / Anthony H. Cordesman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cordesman, Anthony H.

Contributor:

Rosengarten Family Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Armed Forces.

Arab countries--Armed Forces.

Arab countries.

Israel--Armed Forces.

Israel.

Middle East--Armed Forces.

Middle East.

Arab-Israeli conflict--1993-.

Arab-Israeli conflict.

Middle East Region.

Physical Description:

xiv, 709 pages : illustrations, maps ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

Westport, Conn. : Praeger, 2002.

Contents:

1 Assessing the Conventional Balance 1

The Conventional Balance 3

Counting Total Forces 5

Deciding What to Count 5

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Manpower Numbers 7

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Equipment Numbers 8

Dealing with Force Quantity and Force Quality 8

2 Arab

Israeli Military Efforts and Arms Transfers 11

Differences in the Size of National Economies and in the Level of Military Effort 12

Problems in Dollar Comparisons of Military Expenditures and Arms Sales 16

What Can Be Learned from Comparisons of Military Expenditures 19

Syrian Military Expenditures 20

Jordanian Military Expenditures 21

Egyptian Military Expenditures 22

Lebanese Military Expenditures 24

Israeli Military Expenditures 25

"Haves" versus "Have Nots" 29

Relative Efficiency in Using Military Expenditures 29

Comparisons of Arms Sales and Imports 32

The Impact of US Military Assistance 44

3 Comparing Arab

Israeli Forces by Service and Country 55

Understanding the Details Behind Quantitative Comparisons of Total Forces 59

Total Force Strength and Differences in National Force Structure 59

Israeli Command Structure and Land Forces Major Combat Unit Strength 59

Syrian Command Structure and Land Forces Major Combat Unit Strength 61

Jordanian Command Structure and Land Forces Major Combat Unit Strength 62

Lebanese Command Structure and Land Forces Major Combat Unit Strength 64

Egyptian Command Structure and Land Forces Major Combat Unit Strength 65

The Importance of Reserve Forces and Strategic Warning 67

High-Quality Weapons versus Total Weapons 71

Main Battle Tanks 73

Other Armored Fighting Vehicles 81

Anti-Tank Weapons 87

Artillery Forces 90

Multiple Rocket Launchers 98

Mortars 99

Advanced Artillery Warfare Capability 100

Combat Aircraft 101

Qualitative Factors Shaping the Effectiveness of the IAF 107

Qualitative Factors Shaping the Effectiveness of the Syrian Air Force 117

Qualitative Factors Shaping the Effectiveness of the Jordanian Air Force 120

Qualitative Factors Shaping the Effectiveness of the Egyptian Air Force 121

Attack and Armed Helicopters 123

Israeli Combat Helicopter Forces 124

Arab Combat Helicopter Forces 126

Major Surface-to-Air Missile Defenses 127

Israeli Land-Based Air Defenses 128

Syrian Land-Based Air Defenses 129

Jordanian Land-Based Air Defenses 130

Egyptian Land-Based Air Defenses 131

Short-Range Air Defenses 132

Israeli Short-Range Air Defenses 132

Syrian Short-Range Air Defenses 133

Jordanian Short-Range Air Defenses 133

Egyptian Short-Range Air Defenses 133

The Size and Role of Naval Forces 134

Israeli Naval Forces 136

Syrian Naval Forces 139

Jordanian Naval Forces 140

Lebanese Naval Forces 140

Egyptian Naval Forces 141

The Inevitable Limits of Quantitative Comparisons 144

4 "Intangibles": Arab

Israeli Force Quality 147

The Israeli "Edge" 147

Arab Organizational, Resource, Political, and "Cultural" Problems 150

The Qualitative Weaknesses in Most Middle Eastern Military Forces 153

The Qualitative Advantages of Israeli Forces 157

The Limits of Israel's Qualitative "Edge" 163

5 Comparing Arab

Israeli War Fighting Capability 167

6 The Israeli "Edge": Strengths and Weaknesses 173

Keeping the "Edge"? 177

Israeli Military Technology, Equipment Buys, and Arms Transfers 178

Israeli Force Trends 179

Israeli Military Manpower 182

The Problem of Peace and Bureaucratization 184

The Problem of Conscription 185

The Uncertain Role of Women 186

The Changing Role of Reserves 187

Morale, Motivation, and Money 188

Willingness to Serve and Willingness to Take Casualties 188

Numbers versus Quality versus Money 189

Israeli Land Forces 190

Israeli Air Forces 191

Israeli Naval Forces 195

Israeli Long-Range Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction 195

Israeli Criticisms of the IDF and Fears That Israel Is Losing Its "Edge" 197

The Wald Report 198

The Barak Reforms 199

Reforms Since Barak 200

Israel's Continuing Strategic Debate 201

The Creation of a National Security Council, "Zahal 2000," "Idan 2003," and "Idan 2010" 207

The Barak Government and Idan 2010 211

7 Israeli

Palestinian Conflicts 215

Peace with Violence versus a Second Intifada: The Nature of Asymmetric Warfare 226

The "Military Balance": The Actors That Would Challenge the IDF in a Second Intifada 234

Palestinian Paramilitary Groups 235

The Role of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad 239

Hamas 243

Islamic Jihad 251

Outside Actors: Palestinians in Lebanon, the Hizbollah, and Iran 254

Palestinian Hard-Line Movements in Syria and Jordan 257

Israeli Hard-Line Movements and Extremists 260

The History and Effectiveness of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces 260

The Palestinian Authority versus Hamas and the PIJ 261

The Effectiveness of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces 262

The Organization of the Palestinian Security Forces in Gaza and the West Bank 264

Conflict in Gaza 270

Fighting in an Economic and Demographic Time Bomb 271

The Forms the Fighting Might Take in the Gaza 275

Conflict on the West Bank 280

The West Bank Version of the Economic and Demographic Time Bomb 283

Major Security Issues on the West Bank 285

The Problem of Palestinian Sovereignty and the Final Settlement Issues 287

The Problem of Demographics and the Right of Return 288

The Problem of Economics 290

The Problem of Jerusalem 290

The Problem of West Bank Security 293

The Problem of Water 295

The Impact of the Security Arrangements on the West Bank 296

The Israeli-Palestinian Accords 296

Possible Wars on the West Bank 300

Israeli Tactics in a West Bank Conflict 300

The Palestinian Response 302

The Costs of Fighting and Possible Aftermaths 306

Cyber-Conflict on the Web 307

If Peace Should Fail for Years: "Violence without Peace" 308

A Possible Drift Towards Military and Political Extremism 308

Possible Israeli Tactics in a Prolonged Conflict 310

Prolonged Conflict, "Separation," and Evacuation 313

The Role of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iran, and Hizbollah in a Longer Conflict in Gaza or the West Bank 314

If Peace Does Ever Come: The Cost of Living with "Peace with Violence" 315

Palestinian Authority Security Operations and "Mission Impossible" 316

Israeli Criticisms and the Art of the Possible 318

"Peace With Abuses" versus "Peace With Violence" 319

The Palestinian Authority Response 319

The Israeli Security Response 324

The Cost-Effectiveness of Security Measures 328

A Cold Peace and the Possible Role of Neutral Observers 330

8 Israeli-Syrian Conflicts 333

Syrian Capabilities in War Fighting 339

Syrian Modernization, Military Spending, and Arms Imports 340

Syrian Land Forces 349

Syrian Air and Air Defense Forces 350

The Strategic and Tactical Impact of the Golan 351

The Golan and Israel's Overall Supply of Water 354

The Impact of Giving up the Golan 357

War Fighting on the Golan 358

Mobilization, Surprise, and Mass 359

Expanding the Depth of the Golan Battlefield 360

Israeli "Soft Strike" Capabilities in Strategic Bombing 362

A New Type of War? 363

Syrian Risk Taking 363

An Attack Through the Golan After a Syrian-Israeli Peace Settlement 364

The Value of the Golan to Syria in an Attack on Israel 364

Can the Golan Stay Partially Divided? 366

Creating a Secure Peace on the Golan 369

The Military Aspects of the Israeli and Syrian Positions 370

Force Limitation Measures and Confidence-Building Measures 371

Observation Points, Sensors, and Transparency 372

The Role of a Peacekeeping or Observer Force and the Role of the US 373

US Presence in a Peacekeeping Force 374

A US-Israeli Strategic Alliance 375

US "Extended Deterrence" 378

Including Arab States 378

9 Wars Involving Lebanon 381

A History of Civil War 381

The Lebanese Military Forces 385

The Lebanese Army 386

The Lebanese Air Force and

Navy 392

The Syrian Military Presence in Lebanon 393

Syrian Forces in Lebanon and Possible Creation of a Second Front against Israel 395

The Hizbollah and the Proxy War in Lebanon 397

The Evolution of the Hizbollah 398

Foreign Support for the Hizbollah 400

The Size and Armament of Hizbollah 404

The Role of the Hizbollah in Military and Terrorist Actions 405

Amal in Military and Terrorist Actions 407

The South Lebanon Army 407

Israel's Defeat in Lebanon: An Israeli Vietnam? 410

The Basic Military Situation 411

The Fighting Through 1995 412

The Disaster of Operation Grapes of Wrath 413

Trying to Fight Guerrillas on Their Own Terms 414

Blundering Towards Withdrawal 417

Sensors and Electronic Fences 420

Air Raids, "Massive Retaliation," and Collapse 421

Syria, Israel, and Lebanon With or Without the Peace Process 423

Israeli Defense Options 423

Peace as a Defense 426

The UNIFIL Option 427

The Future Threat to Israel Proper

With and Without a Peace 432

10 Jordanian

Israeli Conflicts 437

Jordan's Military Forces 438

Jordanian Support of Palestinian Forces in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel 444

Jordanian "Rescue" of Palestinians in the West Bank: Jordanian Re-Occupation of the West Bank 451

Arms Control and Security Implications 452

11 A Jordanian

Syrian Alliance, Turkey, and Wars on the Eastern Front 455

If Jordan Should Join Syria 455

A Jordanian Role in a Broader Alliance Against Israel 459

The Israeli (Jordanian) Alliance with Turkey 460

12 Egyptian-Israeli Conflicts 463

Egyptian War Fighting Capabilities 470

Egyptian Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 475

Egyptian Land Forces 475

Egyptian Air Forces 478

Egyptian Naval Forces 479

An Egyptian-Israeli Conflict in the Sinai 480

Egyptian Defensive Capabilities 481

Egyptian Offensive Capabilities 481

Arms Control in the Sinai 484

Egypt's Impact on Peace Negotiations and Arms Control 486

13 "Worst Case" Conventional Wars: Israel Fights Egypt, Jordan, and Syria with Support from Other Arab States 487

14 Wars Involving Libyan, Iranian, Iraqi, and Other Arab Conventional Forces 497

Libyan Capabilities 502

Iranian Capabilities 503

Iraqi Capabilities 505

The Impact of Libyan, Iranian, Iraqi, and Other Arab Conventional Capabilities 506

15 Wars Using Weapons of Mass Destruction 509

Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction 509

Israeli Nuclear Weapons 512

Israeli Nuclear Delivery Systems 519

Israeli Chemical and Biological Weapons 526

Israeli Deterrent and Strategic Doctrine and Planning 527

Israeli Missile Defenses 529

Israeli National Programs 530

The Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) or Nautilus 530

The Patriot and PAC-3 531

The Arrow 532

The Integrated Boost-Phase Intercept System and Moab 534

Warning and Command and Control 535

The Interoperable Defense Effort: Israeli and US Cooperation 536

The Complex Structure of the Full Israeli Missile Defense Program 537

Israeli Civil Defense 538

Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction 539

Syrian Missile Programs 539

Syrian and Other Regional Use of Commercial Satellite Imagery 542

Syrian Missile Conversions and Cruise Missiles 543

Syrian Aircraft Delivery Systems 544

Syrian Chemical Weapons 544

Syrian Biological Weapons 546

Syrian Strategy, Doctrine, and Plans 548

Egyptian Weapons of Mass Destruction 549

Egyptian Missile Programs 549

Egyptian Chemical Weapons 551

Egyptian Biological and Nuclear Weapons 552

Algerian, Libyan, Iranian, and Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction 553

Algeria 553

Libya 555

Libyan Delivery Systems 555

Libyan Chemical Warfare Programs 556

Libyan Biological Programs 558

Libyan Nuclear Programs 558

Libyan War Fighting Capability 559

Iran 560

Iranian Delivery Systems 560

Iranian Chemical Warfare Capabilities 572

Iranian Biological Warfare Capabilities 578

Iranian Nuclear Warfare Capabilities 579

Iranian War Fighting Options 588

Iraq 588

Iraq's Current Delivery Capabilities 589

Iraqi Chemical Weapons 595

Iraq's Biological Warfare Capabilities 599

Iraq's Nuclear Warfare Capabilities 603

Iraq's War Fighting Capabilities 607

Proliferation and the Greater Middle East 609

The War Fighting Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction 609

Arab and Iranian Forces and Capabilities 610

Israeli Forces and Capabilities 611

The Evolving War Fighting and Arms Control Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction 613

The Arms Control Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction 617

16 Deterrence, Arms Control, and Regional Stability 625

Self-Stabilizing Deterrence 626

The Nations Inside the Peace Process 626

The Nations Outside the Peace Process 628

The Stabilizing Role of the US 630

US Intervention in an Arab-Israel Conflict 631

The Impact of US Military Assistance 632

Beyond Conventional Deterrence 633

The Impact of the Peace Process, Low-Intensity Combat, and the Palestinian Problem 633

The Impact of Jordan 634

The Impact of Syria, the Golan, and Lebanon 634

The Impact of Weapons of Mass Destruction 635

Implications for Arms Control 636.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages [697]-709).

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Rosengarten Family Fund.

ISBN:

0275969398

OCLC:

45908991