Terrorism, asymmetric warfare, and weapons of mass destruction : defending the U.S. homeland / Anthony H. Cordesman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cordesman, Anthony H.

Contributor:

Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Asymmetric warfare.

United States--Defenses.

United States.

Defenses.

United States--Military policy.

Military policy.

Terrorism--United States--Prevention.

Terrorism.

Asymmetric warfare--United States.

Weapons of mass destruction.

Physical Description:

x, 448 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

Westport, Conn. : Praeger, 2002.

Summary:

Analyzes the threat of covert, terrorist, and extremist attacks with weapons of mass destruction and how the United States can defend against them.

Contents:

Chapter 1 The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism 1

The Growing Focus on Terrorism 7

Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare 8

Chapter 2 Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk 11

Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism 11

Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack 13

Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks 16

Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation 16

U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties 20

Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors 25

States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War 25

Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors 31

The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks" 32

Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives 32

Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases" 33

Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part of Homeland Defense 34

Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation 36

Chapter 3 Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats 39

Potential State Actors 39

A Department of State Assessment of State Threats 40

A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States 45

The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis 49

Foreign Terrorists and Extremists 51

Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action 54

Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists 57

Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants 74

Domestic Terrorists and Extremists 76

The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks 80

Probability versus Probability Theory 85

Chapter 4 Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response 89

Illustrative Attack Scenarios 92

"Conventional" Means of Attack 96

Weapons of Mass Destruction 97

Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack 101

The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons 108

The probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks 109

Methods of Delivery 117

Detection and Interception 118

Acquiring Chemical Weapons 119

The Impact of Technological Change 122

The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study 122

Political and Psychological Effects 124

The Problem of Response 125

Biological Weapons As Means of Attack 128

Categorizing the Biological Threat 135

Case Studies: Iraq and Russia 142

State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date 147

The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident 150

Cases in the United States 150

The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons 151

Means of Delivery 160

Manufacturing Biological Weapons 161

Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture 166

The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture 168

New Types of Biological Weapons 169

Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature 170

Agricultural and Ecological Attacks 174

The Problem of Response 177

Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack 194

The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons 195

The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons 196

Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack 199

Lethality and Effectiveness 207

Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon 216

The Problem of Delivery 222

Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks 222

Chapter 5 Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats 237

Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf 238

The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response 239

Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and Evolutionary Approach 239

The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" and the "Learning Curve Effect" 242

Chapter 6 U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability 245

Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting the Federal Response 247

Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort 249

The Growth of the Federal Effort 250

The FY2000 Program 251

The FY2001 Program 253

The Details of the Federal Effort 254

The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending 255

Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort 261

Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending 264

Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction 269

Chapter 7 Federal Efforts by Department and Agency 275

Department of Agriculture 276

National Animal Health Emergency Program 276

Central Intelligence Agency 277

Department of Commerce 289

Department of Defense 289

Analyzing the Role of the DOD 291

The Size of the Current DOD Effort 295

Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense 297

Key DOD Activities 300

Antiterrorism and Force Protection 303

Counterterrorism 306

Terrorism Consequence Management 307

Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response 318

Research and Development 323

Intelligence 324

Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures 324

The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program 327

Department of Energy 329

Office of Nonproliferation and National Security 329

Office of Emergency Management 330

Office of Defense Programs 330

Office of Emergency Response 330

Nuclear Emergency Search Team 330

Radiological Assistance Program 330

The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program 331

Research and Development 331

Environmental Protection Agency 331

Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response 332

On-Scene Coordinator 332

Federal Emergency Management Agency 332

Response and Recovery Directorate 333

Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate 333

U.S.

Fire Administration 334

National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute 334

General Services Administration 336

Department of Health and Human Services 336

Metropolitan Medical Response Systems 337

National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program 339

Public Health Surveillance System for WMD 340

Research and Development 341

Department of the Interior 341

Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation 341

National Domestic Preparedness Office 345

Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support 350

National Domestic Preparedness Consortium 355

Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program 356

National Institute of Justice 357

National Security Community 358

Nuclear Regulatory Commission 358

Department of State 358

Embassy Protection 358

Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism 360

Bureau of Consular Affairs 362

Bureau of Diplomatic Security 362

Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program 362

Export Controls and Homeland Defense 363

Arms Control and Homeland Defense 363

Department of Transportation 364

Department of Treasury 364

Department of Veterans Affairs 366

Looking Beyond September 2001 367

Chapter 8 Federal, State, and Local Cooperation 373

Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism 374

West Nile Outbreak 375

The Lessons from "Jointness" 377

Chapter 9 How Other Nations Deal with These Threats 381

Leadership and Management 383

Policies and Strategies 384

Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response and Deterrent 385

Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting 386

Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats 387

Learning from Foreign Countries 388

Chapter 10 Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism 391

The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions 391

Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations 394

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management 394

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight 397

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing 398

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control 399

Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems 402

Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism 403

Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations 403

Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments 404

Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness and CBRN Terrorism Response 404

Gilmore Commissions: Standardization of Legal Terms 407

Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment 407

Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States of Concern 409

Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources 410

Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance 411

Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises 411

Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland Defense 416

Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should Be in Charge of 417

Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower-Probability, Higher-Consequence Events 418

Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare 421

Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat 424

The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs 426

Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently 428

Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting 430

Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund" 434

Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities 435

Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement 438

The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved Intelligence 439

The Challenge of Operations 442

Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of Attack, and "New Paradigms" 443

The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal Effort 444

Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare 446.

Notes:

"Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies."

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

0275974278

OCLC:

47201080