Creating futures : scenario planning as a strategic management tool / Michel Godet ; preface by Joseph F. Coates ; translated by Kathryn Radford.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Godet, Michel.

Standardized Title:

Manuel de prospective stratégique. English

Language:

English

French

Subjects (All):

Strategic planning.

Management.

Physical Description:

viii, 269 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

London : Economica, 2001.

Summary:

In this handbook for professionals, managers, planners, and entrepreneurs will discover an arsenal of effective futures-thinking techniques--from workshops to scenario-building software--that enhance the collective process. Readers will find effective ways to anticipate change, while avoiding cliched solutions and conventional thinking.

Contents:

Chapter 1 How to Think About the Future Now 1

Planning, "La Prospective" and Strategy: What's the Difference? 2

Five Key Ideas 9

Chapter 2 Why Do the Experts Get it Wrong? 19

Tales of Error 20

The Four Main Causes of Error 22

Misinformation

More and More! 27

Chapter 3 Hunting Down Cliches 33

No Right Answers to Wrong Questions 34

Three Mirages from the 1970s and 1980s 36

Current Real Questions and False Problems 43

Chapter 4 How to be Rigorous with Scenario Planning 61

Five Conditions and the Tools to Ensure Rigor 62

Scenario Planning: An Integrated Approach 70

Chapter 5 Initiating the Entire Process 91

The Strategic Prospective Workshop 92

Workshop Outlines 94

Illustration: Regulation of the Telecommunications Industry (Horizon 2010) 100

Practical Guide for "Strategic Prospective" 107

Chapter 6 Case Studies in Industry and Defence 111

The Aluminum Industry 112

EDF: The Utility of Futures-Thinking 121

ICW 2010: Looking for a New Individual Combat Weapon 132

Chapter 7 Case Studies in Service Sector 153

IT5: Global Scenarios 154

Scenario Building at Axa France 168

Will Paris Need a Third Airport in 2030? If So, Where? 182

Chapter 8 Basf Facing Agri-Food and Environmental Challenges 195

The Full Futures Process from Upstream to Downstream 196

Mactor Analysis Applied to Food Safety 205

Main Results Regarding Food Safety and the Environment 230

Chapter 9 The Human Factor Makes the Difference 243

Changing Worlds and Adapting Structures and Behaviors 245

Towards Sustainable Motivation 252

The Future: Fruit of Will and Initiative 256.

Notes:

First published (Paris : Dunod, 1997) as Manuel de prospective stratégique.

Includes bibliographical references (pages [261]-265) and index.

ISBN:

271784189X

OCLC:

46682173