Terrorism as a rational tactic : an international study / Fazal Ahmed.

Format:

Book

Manuscript

Microformat

Thesis/Dissertation

Author/Creator:

Ahmad, Fazal, Dr.

Contributor:

Laufer, William S., advisor.

University of Pennsylvania.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Penn dissertations--Public policy and management.

Public policy and management--Penn dissertations.

Penn dissertations--Managerial science and applied economics.

Managerial science and applied economics--Penn dissertations.

Local Subjects:

Penn dissertations--Public policy and management.

Public policy and management--Penn dissertations.

Penn dissertations--Managerial science and applied economics.

Managerial science and applied economics--Penn dissertations.

Physical Description:

x, 236 pages : illustrations ; 29 cm

Production:

1998.

Summary:

This dissertation identifies factors that help explain the rationality of terrorist tactics. To be successful terrorists undertake risks in some rational way. Terrorist tactical rationality may be observed in the successful completion of terrorist events. The measures of success include terrorist tactics, terrorist casualties and fatalities, terrorist attack force, terrorist groups and terrorist periods of learning. From 10,837 terrorist events, three measures of tactics are developed from the perspective of risk to the terrorist. Five periods of terrorist learning are developed from a 26-year history of terrorism. Two models are developed to predict terrorist success. The study also identifies factors that help explain the success of counter-terrorism measures. The same set of predictors is also tested in the counter-terrorism model. The results identify strong predictors of both terrorist success as well as counter-terrorism measures. Terrorists performed as rational actors, exploiting maximum success from medium risk tactics. There was a negative association between terrorist casualties and fatalities and terrorist success. Medium risk tactics yielded maximum success while low risk tactics the least. Terrorists learnt from their experience over time. Both terrorists as well as the forces of counter-terrorism increased their odds of success with each increment in the size and the composition of the terrorist attack force. The greatest success of counter-terrorism measures was closely associated with low risk tactics and the least with high risk tactics. Upward learning trends were observed both on the part of terrorists as well as the forces of counter-terrorism. Counter-terrorism measures benefited from their historical experience five times more than the terrorists. The findings suggest that if counter-terrorism measures are to achieve even greater success, among other measures, they should concentrate on combating terrorist medium risk tactics.

Notes:

Adviser: William S. Laufer.

Thesis (Ph.D. in Public Policy and Management) -- University of Pennsylvania, 1998.

Includes bibliographical references.

Local Notes:

University Microfilms order no.: 99-13423.

OCLC:

187471025