Effects of demand side management on power system reliability : a case study of Thailand / Prasert Sinsukprasert.

Format:

Book

Manuscript

Microformat

Thesis/Dissertation

Author/Creator:

Sinsukprasert, Prasert, 1966-

Contributor:

Grigsby, William G., 1927- advisor.

University of Pennsylvania.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Penn dissertations--Energy management and policy.

Energy management and policy--Penn dissertations.

Local Subjects:

Penn dissertations--Energy management and policy.

Energy management and policy--Penn dissertations.

Physical Description:

x, 181 pages : illustrations ; 29 cm

Production:

1998.

Summary:

This dissertation analyzes the potential effects of demand-side management (DSM) resources on power system reliability. A probabilistic reliability calculation framework is developed for including uncertainty and other reliability-related characteristics of DSM programs. DSM uncertainty is modeled by combining probability distribution uncertainty elements including participation rates, savings per units, free rider effects, snapback effects, and hours of operation. On the supply side, both uncertainties in operational performances and project construction are included. Predictive logit models are developed to estimate the delay probability of future power projects. The reliability calculation algorithm is a modified version of the Large Deviation method that has been proven to provide accurate capacity outage probabilities.

The methodology is applied to a case study of Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand (EGAT), who is responsible for 94% of the country's total power generation. The case study results have shown that the effects of DSM uncertainty are comparable to those of a typical power plant. The DSM resources also increase the robustness of the power system under economic and load growth uncertainty. Planning implications and future research are also discussed.

Notes:

Supervisor: William G. Grigsby.

Thesis (Ph.D. in Energy Management and Policy) -- University of Pennsylvania, 1998.

Includes bibliographical references.

Local Notes:

University Microfilms order no.: 98-29992.

OCLC:

187470866