Civil and political liberties over space and time : a Markov model of transition dynamics / Natalie Inman Shapiro.

Format:

Book

Manuscript

Microformat

Thesis/Dissertation

Author/Creator:

Shapiro, Natalie Inman.

Contributor:

Diebold, Francis X., 1959- advisor.

University of Pennsylvania.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Penn dissertations--Economics.

Economics--Penn dissertations.

Local Subjects:

Penn dissertations--Economics.

Economics--Penn dissertations.

Physical Description:

ix, 114 pages : illustrations ; 29 cm

Production:

1998.

Summary:

This dissertation investigates the evolution of liberties for every country and protectorate in the world, 1972-1995. Separate attention is paid to political vs. civil liberties, and the data are also weighted by population. We explore both the evolution of average political and civil liberties, which provide a summary perspective, and the evolution of the entire probability distributions of political and civil liberties, which provide a more complete perspective. Second, we use a Markov model to quantify the evolution of liberties. We obtain exact maximum likelihood estimates of the model, which we use to assess the likely future course of the distribution of world liberties. We compute the implied steady-state distribution and compare it to the present distribution. The unweighted results favor eventual movement toward reduced liberties while the weighted results suggest movement away from the middle level of liberties and towards the highest and lowest levels.

Notes:

Adviser: Francis X. Diebold.

Thesis (Ph.D. in Economics) -- University of Pennsylvania, 1998.

Includes bibliographical references.

Local Notes:

University Microfilms order no.: 98-29987.

OCLC:

187470852