Tracking America's economy / Norman Frumkin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Frumkin, Norman.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--United States.

Economic forecasting.

United States.

Economic indicators--United States.

Economic indicators.

United States--Economic policy--1981-1993.

Economic policy.

United States--Economic policy--1993-.

Physical Description:

xxi, 335 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Edition:

Third edition.

Place of Publication:

Armonk, N.Y. : M.E. Sharpe, [1998]

Contents:

1 Conceptual and Statistical Aspects of Economic Indicators 3

Business Cycles, Economic Growth, and Growth Cycles 3

Determining Business Cycle Phases 4

Business Cycles and Economic Growth 9

Changing Characteristics of Business Cycles Since the Nineteenth Century 10

Differences between Growth Cycles and Business Cycles 12

Appendix Note on Growth Cycle Methodology 14

Seasonality 15

Extraordinary Events 16

Index Numbers 19

Data Accuracy 22

Revisions 23

Sampling Reliability 25

Calculating and Presenting Growth Rates 26

Annualized and Annual Movements 26

Beginning and Ending Dates 27

Charting Data Graphically 28

Inflation-adjusted Dollars 29

The Underground Economy 31

Distinctions among "Goods," "Services," and "Structures" 33

The Production of Economic Statistics 34

Data Integrity 36

2 Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis, Policies, and Forecasting 40

Analytic System 40

Economic Growth and Unemployment 41

Unemployment versus Inflation: Phillips Curve 44

Growth Cycles in Relation to Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve 50

Fiscal, Monetary, and Incomes Policies 51

Fiscal Policy 53

Monetary Policy 60

Humphrey-Hawkins Act Unemployment and Inflation Goals: Fiscal and Monetary Policies 64

Incomes Policies 65

Basic Aspects of Economic Forecasting 65

Forecasting Methodology: Historical Analysis and Future Assumptions 66

Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Forecasts 68

Forecasting Accuracy 69

Effect of Forecasts on Economic Behavior 72

3 Economic Growth 77

GDP Methodology 78

Meaning of Production 79

Real GDP and Inflation 81

Government Budgets 83

Selected GDP Technical Topics 84

Analysis of Trends 92

Real GDP Movements 94

Trends Before and After World War II 94

Overall Cyclical Movements 96

Last Year of Expansions 99

Alternative GDP Measures of Economic Growth 103

Components of Economic Growth 104

4 Household Income and Expenditure 111

Methodology 111

Analysis of Trends 114

Volatility of Consumer Durable Goods Spending 115

Personal Income 118

Personal Saving 121

Household Credit and Debt 122

5 Business Profits, Nonresidential Investment, and Housing 128

Business Profits and Nonresidential Investment 128

The Role of Profits 130

GDP, Profits, and Nonresidential Investment 132

Capacity Utilization and Nonresidential Investment 133

New Orders for Nondefense Capital Equipment 136

Housing 137

New Housing Demand 139

6 The United States in the World Economy 147

Methodology 147

Demand for Exports and Imports 150

Relative Importance of Demand Factors 152

Terms of Trade 157

Balance of Payments and External Debt 159

7 Investment and Saving 167

Accounting Equivalence of Investment and Saving 168

Saving Components 168

Investment Components 170

Overall Dimensions 170

Theory and Dynamics of the Investment-Saving Relationship 172

Trends from the 1960s to the 1990s 173

Implications of the Investment and Saving Movements 175

8 Employment and Wages 182

Employment 182

Methodology 183

Analysis of Trends 188

Wage Earnings 195

Worker Hours, Worker Earnings, and Household Income 195

Wage Costs versus Wage Earnings 198

9 Unemployment 206

Unemployment Rate 206

Methodology 207

Analysis of Trends 211

Demographic Changes Affecting the Labor Force and Unemployment 211

Impact of Cyclical Movements on the Labor Force and Unemployment 216

Unemployment Goals 218

Note on Job Vacancy Data 219

10 Productivity 222

Methodology 223

Labor Productivity: Business Sector 223

Multifactor Productivity: Business Sector 225

Labor and Multifactor Productivity: Manufacturing 226

Analysis of Trends 227

Cyclical Movements 229

Industrial Relationship of Productivity, Output, and Employment 230

Productivity Slowdown in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s 232

Comparison with Other Countries 233

Productivity and Inflation 235

11 Inflation 239

General Characteristics of Inflation 240

Contrasting Rates of Inflation 240

Price Expectations and Price Structure 242

Methodology and Issues of Price Indexes 243

Combining Individual Items into a Single Index 243

The CPI: General Attributes and Illustrative Index Calculation 244

Price Effect of Updated CPI Weights 246

Accounting for Quality Change in Price Indexes: Illustrative for the CPI 246

Sampling Error in the CPI 248

Proposed Methodological Changes to the CPI 249

Price Movements of the Major Price Indexes 253

Cyclical Inflation Movements 255

Transmission of Price Change by Stage of Processing 256

Inflation and Capacity Utilization 260

Capacity Utilization Methodology 261

Measurement Problems 262

Trends in the Capacity Utilization and Inflation Relationship 263

Domestic Inflation and Imports 265

Misery Index 267

12 Finance 272

Money Supply 273

Money Supply and Economic Growth 274

Money Supply Targets and Their Implementation 276

Money Supply, Economic Growth, and Inflation 279

Money Supply Targets and Velocity 281

Interest Rates 284

Interest Rates and the Money Supply 285

Real Interest Rates and Economic Growth 287

Interest Rate Yield Curve 288

Interest Rates and the Stock Market 290

Appendix Federal Reserve Organization and Independence 293

13 Leading Indicator System 300

The Process of Cyclical Change 301

Duration of Cyclical Expansions and Recessions 303

The Primary Role of Profits 303

Limitation for Forecasting 306

Methodology 308

Inversion of Unemployment Indicators 309

Analysis of Cyclical Movements 309

Coincident/Lagging Ratio 311

False Signals 313

Probability of Future Recessions: Experimental Indexes 313.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 319-324) and index.

ISBN:

0765600013

0765600021

OCLC:

37694969