Sustainability and choice : theory with an application in energy policy / Alex Farrell.

Format:

Book

Manuscript

Microformat

Thesis/Dissertation

Author/Creator:

Farrell, Alexander E.

Contributor:

Kleindorfer, Paul R., advisor.

University of Pennsylvania.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Penn dissertations--Energy management and policy.

Energy management and policy--Penn dissertations.

Local Subjects:

Penn dissertations--Energy management and policy.

Energy management and policy--Penn dissertations.

Physical Description:

vii, 363 pages : illustrations ; 29 cm

Production:

1996.

Summary:

Problems such as ecosystem destruction, resource scarcity, and global climate change have been linked to the term "sustainability". Problems related to sustainability are difficult because they involve epistemic uncertainty, very long time horizons, and extremely large scales; they invoke deeply-held values; and they affect the central interests of many key groups in society. This dissertation investigates the implications of such problems for decision making--i.e. choice in the context of sustainability. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) is used to examine the case of vehicle fuel choice in the context of sustainability. However, the conventional MCA solution procedure is found to be inappropriate, so a modified, two-stage technique is developed. In the first stage a conjunctive filter is used to screen out alternatives which are unacceptable from a biogeophysical standpoint. In the second stage the conventional MCA solution procedure is used to evaluate the remaining alternatives. The arguments for this two-stage technique strongly imply that sustainability cannot be adequately represented or measured with a single-scaled metric, such as in monetary terms. The most immediate conclusion is that none of the vehicle fuels currently available (including gasoline, natural gas, liquified petroleum gas, methanol and ethanol) are adequate for use in a sustainable society. The overriding energy policy prescription is for the development of vehicle fuels which do not rely on fossil energy sources, do not contribute to global climate change, and the production of which does not irreversibly degrade the environment. More broadly, risk-averse approaches to decision making, such as the precautionary principle, regret-minimizing decision rules, and the two-stage MCA technique developed in this dissertation are recommended for problems related to sustainability. Research which improves our understanding of biosphere's structure and function, and thus reduces epistemic uncertainty, is also supported.

Notes:

Supervisor: Paul R. Kleindorfer.

Thesis (Ph.D. in Energy Management and Policy) -- University of Pennsylvania, 1996.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Local Notes:

University Microfilms order no.: 97-12922.

OCLC:

187469273